NEWSLETTER of January 26, 2024

The following content has been added at finexpert:

KfW Research
KFW-IFO-KREDITHÜRDE: Q4 2023
Access to credit remains difficult for German companies. It is true that the credit hurdle perceived by companies fell slightly from its peak in the fourth quarter. Nevertheless, over a quarter of small and medium-sized enterprises, namely 28.8%, rated the banks' behavior in loan negotiations as restrictive. Companies' interest in loans also remains weak. Despite the sharp rise in lending rates in the fourth quarter, demand for credit did not experience any additional losses, but remained stable at a low level. The restrictive monetary policy and the weak economic outlook are the main factors weighing on the lending business. >more

PwC
TRANSPORT & LOGISTICS BAROMETER: 2023 FULL-YEAR ANALYSIS
In 2023, only 185 mergers and acquisitions (M&A) worth at least USD 50 million were announced in the global transport and logistics (T&L) industry - a drop of 29% compared to the previous year and by far the weakest figure in the past ten years. The total volume of deals also slumped to 74.6 billion US dollars (2022: 181.3 billion). >more

Lazard
2024 EUROPEAN VENTURE & GROWTH OUTLOOK
A key challenge over the past 18 months has been the recycling of invested capital, driven by the fall in primary issuance and lower exit volumes. Heading into 2024, a growing IPO backlog and signs of increased strategic and sponsor participation could help increase levels of DPI. In turn, this may encourage European venture-backed companies and investors to return to the equity funding market. >more

KfW Research
VENTURE CAPITAL: MARKTBEOBACHTUNG MIT SOCIAL MEDIA-SENTIMENT-ANALYSEN
Private markets, such as the VC market, are characterized by the fact that they are comparatively illiquid, meaning that external influences are only slowly reflected in observable market variables such as valuations and transaction volumes. In addition, the corresponding information on private markets is only publicly known to a limited extent. Both of these factors make it difficult to observe market movements in real time. Due to the active communication of many market participants on social media, these represent an interesting alternative source of information. >more

FEARING THE FED: HOW WALL STREET READS MAIN STREET
Vadim Elenev, Tzuo Hann Law, Dongho Song, and Amir Yaron
2022
We provide strong evidence of a countercyclical sensitivity of the stock market to major macroeconomic announcements. The most notable cyclical variation takes place within expansions: sensitivity is largest early in an expansion and essentially zero late in an expansion. By exploiting the comovement pattern between stock returns and bond yields around announcements, we show that the stock market sensitivity is large when the cash flow component of news is least offset by news about future risk-free rates. We propose a simple New Keynesian model which links this asset pricing evidence to monetary policy responsiveness. >more

CORPORATE CLIMATE RISK: MEASUREMENTS AND RESPONSES
Qing Li, Hongyu Shan, Yuehua Tang, and Vincent Yao
2023
This paper conducts a textual analysis of earnings call transcripts to quantify climate risk exposure at the firm level. We construct dictionaries that measure physical and transition climate risks separately and identify firms that proactively respond to climate risks. Our validation analysis shows that our measures capture firm-level variations in respective climate risk exposure. Firms facing high transition risk, especially those that do not proactively respond, have been valued at a discount in recent years as aggregate investor attention to climate-related issues has been increasing. We document differences in how firms respond through investment, green innovation, and employment when facing high climate risk exposure. >more