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COVID-19 RECOVERY: BACK TO WORK

NEWS: STUDIES > Performance

Bain & Company - Recoveries have always mattered in business. Some of the biggest shifts in market share occur coming out of downturns, when new industry leaders — and new industries — often emerge. Rarely, though, has recovery meant putting people’s lives at risk. The post-Covid-19 world will accelerate some existing trends and create new ones, and all business models will have to evolve in order to grow and thrive. But there’s no way to accurately predict the coming year, and it’s a dangerous mistake to rely too heavily on forecasts, which have to be complemented with highly adaptive and resilient business models. >more

PRIVATE EQUITY PANEL Spring 2020

NEWS: STUDIES > Alternative Investments

CMS Hasche Sigle / FINANCE - For the Private Equity Panel, the FINANCE editorial team, together with the law firm CMS Hasche Sigle, interviews senior investment managers from more than 50 leading private equity houses in Germany three times a year about their current market assessment. The Corona crisis has left deep scars on the German mid-market private equity market, and the leveraged finance and private equity M&A markets have collapsed. But there is also a ray of hope. >more

COVID-19: INDIVIDUELLE AUSWIRKUNGEN AUF DEUTSCHE SCHLÜSSELINDUSTRIEN

STUDIES > Performance

Andersch - This publication reviews consequences of the C-19 pandemic for German key industries. For each sector, it discusses how supply chains and sales are affected as well as interdependencies with other branches and macroeconomic developments. The outcome is a detailed projection of how soon sector recovery is possible contingent on several economic scenarios. >more

UPDATE CAPITAL MARKET DATA

We updated the capital market data (Betas, Multiples, Returns) as to April 15, 2020. For data access, you must be a basic finexpert member. In addition, premium members have access to the archive for our capital market data from 2007 onwards. >more

KFW-INTERNATIONALISIERUNGS­BERICHT

STUDIES > Macro

KfW Research - The coronavirus hits the export-oriented German economy in an already difficult situation. The increasing tensions in international trade relations and a slowing global economy already left their mark on SMEs in 2018: foreign sales at that time rose by only around 3.1 % to EUR 595 billion (2017: 5.5 %).The foreign share of total sales of internationally active companies fell slightly to 28.2 % in 2018. The KfW-ifo export expectations of SMEs in the manufacturing sector were negative throughout 2019, but recently they have dropped sharply again: In March 2020 the indicator fell by a full 17.6 points to a balance of -24.6. >more

finexpert Webinars

1-Day-Webinar "Unternehmenskrisen und Sanierungsplanung" 11.06.2020

1-day webinar with a holistic restructuring approach and delivery of an excel-based restructuring plan. We will discuss the challenges of a corporate crisis with you, present "typical" measures for short-term liquidity protection as well as long-term improvement of operational performance and work out the correct practical implementation in an Excel-based planning model together with you. Referent: Sanierungsexperte Daniel Zörnig, LL.M. corp. restruc. >more

COVID-19 CRISIS AND THE EUROPEAN BANKING SECTOR

STUDIES > Performance

Strategy& - As the COVID-19 crisis hits the financial sector, European and German banks in particular have already been facing several challenges before and, hence, might be more vulnerable than international peers. This does not only refer to weak profitability levels, but also to high corporate leverage and loosening covenant requirements which have made CROs worry already for some time with some banks taking more caution in underwriting new business in 2019. >more

FINEXPERT COMMUNITY

We welcomed our 2000th member! (March 2020) >more

RISKS AND RETURNS IN CROWDLENDING

RESEARCH PAPERS > Alternative Investments

Saman Adhami, Gianfranco Gianfrate, and Sofia Johan
2019
Crowdlending has emerged in recent years as an innovative way to finance new ventures and small companies. However, digitalized funding is a new technology itself; therefore, it is prone to mispricing and inefficiencies. We investigate whether peer-to-peer crowdlending to businesses provides investors with returns consistent with the level of risk borne. By studying over 3000 loans mediated on 68 European platforms we show that the returns are inversely related to loans’ riskiness, suggesting that, on average, crowdfunded loans are mispriced. Our results have important implications for the debate about the role of regulation in FinTech. >more

GERMAN TAKEOVER REPORT 2020

finexpert | ValueTrust
3 Market Overview
11 Capital Market Reaction
15 Statements & Fairness Opinions
21 Success Rates
27 Takeover Case Study: OSRAM Licht AG
30 Transaction Details 2019
The Report covers covers all takeover offers and delisting tender offers of the year 2019 according to the German takeover code WpÜG and provides extensive information on relevant variables like bid types, premia offered, market reaction of target’s and (if available) on bidder’s stock prices. In addition, our extensive database allows to compare last year´s figures of these variables against the moving average of the preceding years and thus to highlight trends and long term developments. Finally, the finexpert German takeover report contains a unique and extensive analysis of fairness opinions and statements of management and supervisory board of the target company (§27 WpÜG), allowing for a detailed analysis of the relationship of these factors upon target stock price reaction and success rates of the takeover bid. Along with the “traditional” success definitions of takeover offers, we analyse an alternative success measure that takes potential bidder toeholds into account. Our results reveal high public M&A activity in 2019 with a large number of offers many of which were unsuccessful. None of the offers’ volume exceeded EUR 5bn, and the takeover offer of EP Global Commerce VI GmbH to the shareholders of Metro AG was the largest (EUR 4.8bn). Most of the bids were launched by foreign investors. This report contains a detailed description of events surrounding the takeover attempts for OSRAM Licht AG from a joint entity of private equity investors: Bain Capital, and Carlyle Group, and later from an Austrian company ams AG. >more

TUTORIALS > Valuation Video QoD23

Questions of doubt in corporate valuation QoD#23: Is there something wrong with unicorn valuation?

Bernhard Schwetzler
This video highlights potential flaws from applying simple post money valuation metrics on growth companies in VC financing rounds: Ignoring special cash flow rights like liquidation preferences yields significant overvaluation.(November 10, 2019). >more (videoarchiv QoD#1-23

RESEARCH PAPERS > Corporate Valuation

SAME, SAME BUT DIFFERENT: HOW PREFERENTIAL CLAIMS SKEW RETURNS OF VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENTS

Julian Kaboth, Arnd Lodowicks, Maximilian Schreiter, and Bernhard Schwetzler
2019
Venture capital often involves complex equity contracts, which affect the allocation of cash flows among shareholdings at an exit liquidation. To facilitate economic impact analysis, we structure exit relevant preferential rights by their economic impact in a two-dimensional framework. Based hereon, we provide a model that allows to assess ex-ante value of such shares. We apply our model to a selected sample of ventures and find an average overvaluation on a share class basis of 22.1% (median 23.9%), where overvaluation is particularly severe for common and early-on investments. >more

TOP 3 Studies

COVID-19: INDIVIDUELLE AUSWIRKUNGEN AUF DEUTSCHE SCHLÜSSELINDUSTRIEN
> more
COVID-19 RECOVERY: BACK TO WORK
> more
PRIVATE EQUITY PANEL Spring 2020
> more

>more for Youtube Channel "Questions of Doubt in Corporate Valuation"

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