NEWSLETTER of April 4, 2025

The following content has been added at finexpert:

Value Trust | finexpert

German Takeover Report 2025 | Volume 11 | March 2025

We proudly present the 2025 issue of the finexpert German takeover report. It covers all takeover offers and delisting tender offers of the year 2024 according to the German takeover code WpÜG and provides extensive information on relevant variables like bid types, premia offered, market reaction of target’s and (if available) on bidder’s stock prices. In addition, our extensive database allows to compare last year´s figures of these variables against the moving average of the preceding years and thus to highlight trends
and long term developments. Finally, the finexpert German takeover report contains a unique and extensive analysis of fairness opinions and statements of management and supervisory board of the target company (§27 WpÜG), allowing for a detailed analysis of the relationship of these factors upon target stock price reaction and success rates of the takeover bid. Along with the “traditional” success definitions of takeover offers, we analyse an alternative success measure that takes potential bidder toeholds into account.
2024 has seen a further recovery in German public M&A activity from the low values in 2022. While the number of offers is again close to pre-Covid19 levels, deal volume is still far from the corresponding pre-crisis figures. This report contains a detailed description of the takeover offer of Novartis BidCo AG for MorphoSys AG from February 2024. >more

Nuveen
2025 GLOBAL INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR SURVEY
Over the past five years, the EQuilibrium survey has chronicled a period of significant change, marked by economic shifts, geopolitical uncertainty and the evolution of private markets. In 2025, investors are taking cash off the sidelines and seeking new opportunities as macro conditions change and the rate environment shows signs of shifting. Institutions are adapting with greater agility, giving them more flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and continue to advance climaterelated goals amid the evolving energy transition. Dive into this year’s themes and uncover insights that are shaping the future of institutional investing. >more

KfW Research
DEUTSCHER VC-MARKT NACH DEM "BOOM AND BUST": RÜCKKEHR ZU NACHHALTIGEM AUFWÄRTSTREND SOLLTE ZIEL SEIN
The German venture capital market has developed positively in recent years and is much more mature today than it was a decade ago. Nevertheless, it is still lagging behind key international markets where more capital is available to start-ups. While the boom and bust phase that began in 2021 appears to have been overcome and the signs indicate that the market will be able to continue on its growth path this year, the sustainable development of the market in key areas of activity still requires targeted and long-term efforts. In particular, the mobilization of private capital for venture capital investments is crucial for this. >more

Deutsche Bank Research
KREDITGESCHÄFT UND KONJUNKTUR: SORGT FISKALPAKET FÜR AUSBRUCH AUS DER STAGNATION?
Loans to companies and the self-employed only grew by 0.7% in 2024. They continued to shrink in industry in particular, while there was a moderate increase for service providers. Credit standards have recently been tightened again and demand has lost momentum, despite falling interest rates. Capital market financing also remains weak. Companies are also holding more liquidity. However, the fiscal package could contribute to a better mood. The German economy is stabilizing at the start of the year, but is likely to suffer in the short term from uncertainty among companies and households as well as the trade conflict with the USA. Thanks in part to the fiscal package, however, growth next year should benefit from rising public and private investment as well as stronger private consumption and a revival in construction (expected GDP growth 2025/26: 0.3%/1.5%). >more

KfW Research
MITTELSTAND AM STANDORT DEUTSCHLAND – DIE GRÖßTEN HERAUSFORDERUNGEN 2025
The German economy is stagnating. Concerns about the competitiveness of Germany as a business location are also growing across the entire spectrum of SMEs - from solo self-employed persons to small craft businesses and larger industrial companies. A recent special survey for the KfW SME Panel shows where small and medium-sized enterprises see the key challenges for the year 2025. Bureaucracy, a shortage of skilled workers, cost increases, a weak order situation and a high level of political uncertainty are weighing on companies. There are many problems to solve at the same time - but also many starting points to get Germany back on track for growth. >more

INTRAHOUSEHOLD DISAGREEMENT ABOUT MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS
Da Ke
2025
This paper highlights the simple fact that households typically consist of multiple members who may hold divergent views, a fact that existing approaches to measuring and modeling household macroeconomic expectations largely abstract from. Using unique data on macroeconomic expectations of both spouses, I document substantial intrahousehold disagreement about inflation, economic recessions, and stock market returns. I further show that household asset allocation decisions are shaped by disagreement between spouses about future stock returns, and a pre-registered randomized survey experiment confirms the causal impact of such disagreement on portfolio choice. Additional investigation reveals the central role played by information at the belief aggregation stage of the decision-making process between spouses with heterogeneous beliefs. >more

VENTURE CAPITAL AND STARTUP AGGLOMERATION
Jun Chen, and Michael Ewens
2025
The paper studies venture capital's (VC) role in the geographic clustering of high-growth startups. We exploit a rule change that disproportionately impacted U.S. regions that historically lacked VC financing via a restriction of banks to invest in the asset class. A one-standard-deviation increase in VCs' exposure to the rule led to a 20% decline in fund size and a 10% decrease in the likelihood of raising a follow-on fund. Startups were not wholly cushioned: financing and valuations declined. Startups also moved out of impacted states after the rule change, likely exacerbating existing geographic disparity in entrepreneurship. >more