NEWSLETTER of April 17, 2025

The following content has been added at finexpert:

ValueTrust
EUROPEAN CAPITAL MARKET STUDY
​The 15th edition of the ValueTrust European Capital Market Study, as of December 31, 2024, provides a comprehensive analysis of cost of capital parameters and sector-specific trading multiples across the STOXX Europe 600 index. The study examines key inputs for enterprise valuation, including risk-free rates, market risk premiums, betas, and both implied (ex-ante) and historical (ex-post) market and sector returns. Additionally, it offers insights into capital structure-adjusted sector returns, total shareholder returns, and trading multiples, serving as essential tools for financial professionals assessing European capital markets. >more

ValueTrust | finexpert | WU Vienna
DACH CAPITAL MARKET STUDY
​The 16th edition of the ValueTrust DACH Capital Market Study, as of December 31, 2024, offers a detailed analysis of cost of capital parameters and sector-specific trading multiples for Germany, Austria, and Switzerland. It examines key valuation inputs such as risk-free rates, market risk premiums, betas, and both implied (ex-ante) and historical (ex-post) market and sector returns, across twelve industry sectors. Additionally, the study provides insights into capital structure-adjusted sector returns and total shareholder returns, serving as essential tools for financial professionals assessing the DACH capital markets. >more

ValueTrust | finexpert
GERMAN TAKEOVER REPORT 2025
The 2025 edition of the German Takeover Report by finexpert and ValueTrust analyzes all takeover and delisting tender offers in Germany during 2024, highlighting a significant recovery in public M&A activity. The report notes a 52.4% increase in total bids and a 122% rise in transaction volume compared to 2023, with notable deals including ADNOC’s €10.58 billion offer for Covestro and Novartis's acquisition of MorphoSys. It also provides in-depth analyses of bid structures, market reactions, fairness opinions, and success rates, offering valuable insights for financial professionals.​ >more

Allianz Research
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - RIDERS ON THE STORM: MANAGING UNCERTAINTY
​The Allianz Global Economic Outlook for Q1 2025 projects a significant slowdown in global GDP growth to 2.3%, the lowest since the pandemic, largely due to escalating U.S. trade tensions, including steep tariffs on Chinese imports and retaliatory measures from China . The U.S. is anticipated to enter a mild recession, with a cumulative GDP decline of 0.5% in the first three quarters, while Europe faces stagnation despite fiscal stimuli, as heightened trade restrictions and a weaker U.S. economy dampen growth . Inflationary pressures, particularly in the U.S., are expected to peak at 4.3% by summer, prompting central banks to adopt cautious monetary policies, with the Federal Reserve likely holding rates steady until October before gradual cuts . >more

Deutsche Bank Research
NEUER KOALITIONSVERTRAG: NEUBAU STEHT IM FOKUS
The new coalition agreement prioritizes new construction to combat the housing shortage and further rent increases. Many measures are mentioned that should increase the supply of housing, particularly in urban areas. We have raised our forecast for the number of completions. The already strict tenant protection will be maintained. Climate protection will be put on a new footing. The Heating Act will be abolished. Technological openness will be pursued. All in all, the coalition agreement approximates our already cautious optimism. We expect a balanced housing policy. >more

CRYPTOCURRENCY PUMP-AND-DUMP SCHEMES
Tao Li, Donghwa Shin, and Baolian Wang
2023
Pump-and-dump schemes (P&Ds) pervade the cryptocurrency market. We find that P&Ds trigger short-term episodes featuring dramatic increases in prices, volume, and volatility. Prices peak within minutes and quick reversals follow. The evidence we document, including price run-ups before P&Ds start, implies that significant wealth transfers between insiders and outsiders occur. Exploiting two natural experiments in which exchanges altered their P&D policies, we show that P&Ds are detrimental to cryptocurrency liquidity and prices. Interestingly, gambling and overconfident investors often participate in P&Ds and some investors exhibit naïve reinforcement learning. We also describe how our findings shed light on manipulation theories. >more

MARKET DOMINANCE IN THE DIGITAL AGE
Logan P. Emery
2024
I document that the network structure of the online economy significantly contributes to rising industry concentration.  Firms that are central in the online economy benefit more from increased economies of scale, decreased search costs, and network effects resulting from digitalization.  Industries with firms that are more central become more concentrated and central firms have larger increases in market share.  These results are driven by firms’ ability to generate revenue, as evidenced by central firms earning higher risk-adjusted returns and having more positive earnings surprises.  Centrality is also associated with increasing productivity, but profitability only increases for central firms in business-to-consumer industries. >more