NEWSLETTER of September 19, 2025

The following content has been added at finexpert:

Deloitte
NON-PERFORMING LOANS MARKETBEAT 2025
The Deloitte NPL Marketbeat 2025 provides an in-depth market analysis of non-performing loans in Germany and includes a section on debt collection and dunning procedures. The analysis focuses on the following questions: How is the market for non-performing loans (NPLs) developing in Germany? What impact are economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions and new regulations having on banks and investors? What role do debt collection and dunning procedures play? For the report, 100 executives from German credit institutions, including private banks, savings banks, cooperative banks, development banks and specialised banks, were surveyed. >more

KfW Research
ZUR PERSPEKTIVE VON SUSTAINABLE FINANCE UND NACHHALTIG­KEITS­BERICHT­ERSTATTUNG AUF KOMMUNALER EBENE
The challenges posed by climate change present major investment challenges, particularly at the municipal level. To what extent can sustainable finance instruments be used here? While green bond issues in Germany reached a new high in 2024 with a total volume of over EUR 64 billion, only one municipality, the city of Munich, has issued a green bond in the narrower sense to date. Particular challenges include the high costs of using sustainable financing instruments, the lack of human resources and, at least in the past, the lack of interest rate advantages. Nevertheless, the topic is attracting interest and has the potential to open up new financing instruments for important public infrastructure. >more

ZEW | Creditreform
WEITERHIN SCHWACHES GRÜNDUNGSGESCHEHEN IN DEUTSCHLAND
The number of start-ups in Germany is falling dramatically. According to calculations by ZEW in Mannheim and Creditreform Wirtschaftsforschung, only around 161,000 new companies were founded in 2024 – the lowest number in decades. By way of comparison, between 2015 and 2021, the average was still around 168,000 start-ups per year, and in the early 2000s it was even over 200,000. >more

Deutsche Bank Research
HAUSHALTE SPAREN WENIGER, ZÖGERN ABER WEITER BEI KREDITEN
Growth in deposits from private individuals in Germany slowed in the first half of 2025. At the same time, households shifted their savings back into more liquid demand deposits. Deposit growth is likely to remain rather low in the coming months, as deposit interest rates are likely to continue to decline. In addition, consumers may become less cautious in the wake of the expected economic recovery and be more willing to spend money. Outstanding real estate loans increased by a solid EUR 11.4 billion in H1 2025. However, growth in gross new mortgage lending cooled slightly in the second quarter after mortgage interest rates rose somewhat. As interest rates are expected to remain at elevated levels, real estate loan growth is likely to remain subdued for the rest of the year. >more

WAR DISCOURSE AND THE CROSS SECTION OF EXPECTED STOCK RETURNS
David Hirshleifer, Dat Mai, and Kuntara Pukthuanthong
2024
A war-related  factor model derived from textual analysis of media news reports explains the  cross section of expected stock returns. Using a semi-supervised topic model to extract discourse topics from 7,000,000 New York Times stories spanning 160 years, the war factor  predicts the cross section of returns  across  test assets derived from  both traditional and machine learning construction techniques, and spanning 138 anomalies. Our  findings are consistent with assets that are good hedges for  war risk receiving lower risk premia, or with assets that are more positively sensitive  to war prospects being more overvalued.  The return premium on the war  factor is incremental to standard effects. >more

THE PROPAGATION OF CYBERATTACKS THROUGH THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM: EVIDENCE FROM AN ACTUAL EVENT
Antonis Kotidis, and Stacey Schreft
2025
This article quantifies the effects of a multiday cyberattack that forced offline a technology service provider (TSP) to the banking sector. The attack impaired customers' ability to send payments through the TSP, but the business continuity plans of banks and the TSP reduced the effect by more than half. Large banks performed better. Through contagion, banks not directly exposed to the attack experienced a liquidity shortfall, causing them to borrow funds or tap reserves. The ability to send payments after hours helped avoid further contagion. These results highlight the importance of preparedness by the private and official sector for cyberattacks. >more