NEWSLETTER of December 12, 2025

The following content has been added at finexpert:

BNP Paribas
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2026 – THE SHIFTING INVESTMENT LANDSCAPE
Against a backdrop of volatile geopolitics, tariffs, and policy shifts, the global economy enters 2026 with surprising resilience. Growth forecasts have been revised upwards. Across regions, however, the outlook is marked by diverging paths. For investors, we believe that asset allocation in 2026 will be shaped by the interplay of monetary policy, fiscal dynamics, and evolving market structures. Hence, flexibility and selectivity will be essential as markets adapt to greater fragmentation across the global economy. >more

Deutsche Bank Research
AUFSCHWUNG LÄSST AUF SICH WARTEN: KREDITGESCHÄFT UND KONJUNKTUR IN Q3 2025
Credit growth among companies and the self-employed rose slightly in the third quarter to +1.1% year-on-year. The contraction in industry continues, and service providers are also lacking momentum. However, long-term loans are growing at their fastest rate since 2023. Credit unions are the only ones gaining significant market share. Interest rates have stabilized and demand for credit has continued to rise. Alternative financing options performed solidly for the most part. The German economy stagnated in Q3. While government spending and corporate investment rose, private consumption and construction declined. Further headwinds came from foreign trade. In 2026 and 2027, however, GDP growth is likely to accelerate significantly to over 1%, mainly thanks to the government's investment offensive and a calming of the trade dispute with the US. >more

Barclays
Q3 2025 REVIEW OF SHAREHOLDER ACTIVISM
Activists launched a record 61 campaigns in Q3, setting a new record and departing from historic trends. Year-to-date, 2025 is the busiest year on record, with 191 campaigns, up 19% versus the long-term average. >more

Bank for International Settlements
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW, DECEMBER 2025
The December BIS Quarterly Review is a special edition delving into the data collected from more than 1,000 banks in 52 jurisdictions, uncovering the wider trends and structural shifts at play in FX and interest rate derivatives markets. >more

SOCIAL MEDIA AS A BANK RUN CATALYST 
J. Anthony Cookson, Corbin Fox, Javier Gil-Bazo, Juan Felipe Imbet, and Christoph Schiller
2025
After the run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) in March 2023, U.S. regional banks entered a period of significant distress. We quantify social media's role in this distress using comprehensive Twitter data.  During the SVB run period, banks with high pre-existing exposure to Twitter lost 4.3 percentage points more stock market value. Moreover, Twitter pre-exposure interacts significantly with classical run risks to predict greater run severity and greater deposit outflows during Q1-2023, effects unexplained by other banking or market characteristics. At the hourly frequency during the run, high Twitter attention over the past four hours predicts stock market losses, especially for banks with high run risks.  By contrast, we find that negative Twitter sentiment does not amplify bank run risks.  Rather, our evidence points to a distinctive role of Twitter attention, particularly when tweets are retweeted broadly. >more

GOING PUBLIC AND THE INTERNAL ORGANIZATION OF THE FIRM
Daniel Bias, Benjamin Lochner, Stefan Obernberger, and Merih Sevilir
2025
This paper examines how initial public offerings (IPOs) affect firms' internal organization. We find that IPO firms become more hierarchical and standardized organizations, characterized by additional layers, more managers, smaller control spans, and larger administrative functions. These changes occur mostly in preparation for the IPO and can be only partially explained by growth. IPO firms with greater human capital risk experience larger hierarchical changes. Hierarchical changes help firms standardize employee roles and formalize internal processes. Our results suggest that firms reorganize to reduce their dependence on key individuals' human capital when transitioning to public markets. >more