NEWSLETTER of February 14, 2025

The following content has been added at finexpert:

PwC
GLOBAL FAMILY OFFICE DEALS STUDY
For decades, and in some cases centuries, family offices have been entrusted with the preservation of generational wealth. But they’re now fundamentally transforming, as they become increasingly prominent players in an expanding array of investment deals across a wide range of asset classes. In navigating this change of role and remit, they’re also becoming increasingly professionalised and specialised in terms of their investment strategies and processes, often evolving into full-fledged family investment funds. >more

PwC
GLOBAL IPO WATCH 2024
The Top 10 IPOs of 2024 highlight a true global distribution, moving away from the usual concentrations in the US and, more recently, China and Hong Kong SAR. Although Technology has been a major driver in equity markets in the year, it is Consumer stocks that lead in IPO rankings. >more

Bain & Company
M&A REPORT 2025
In 2024, deal value was historically low as a percentage of global GDP, but we are optimistic for the year ahead as M&A and divestitures will be critical tools for companies navigating technology disruption, a post-globalization economy, and the inevitable shifting profit pools. A big reason for our optimism is seeing first-hand how companies have pursued M&A despite three years of headwinds, including high interest rates and regulatory scrutiny. Among the big adjustments: New deal economics pushed many buyers to prioritize rapid value creation, pursuing both revenue and cost synergies in tandem. We also saw a fundamental shift to scale M&A, especially in industries with high fixed costs. Any easing of those headwinds will only fuel further dealmaking momentum. >more

KfW Research
GERMAN PRIVATE EQUITY BAROMETER Q4 2024
The German private equity market was in the doldrums at the end of 2024. The sentiment indicator dropped to -44.6 balance points in the fourth quarter of 2024. Without the steep but brief slump during the COVID-19 shock in the first quarter of 2020, the indicator would have hit a new all-time low in the final quarter. The economic worries of small and medium-sized enterprises in Germany are obviously weighing so heavily on business activity in the private equity market that the recent key interest rate reductions failed to halt the further decline in sentiment. >more

KfW Research
GERMAN VENTURE CAPITAL BAROMETER Q4 2024
After the slump in sentiment in the German venture capital market appeared to have been largely overcome, the business climate fell again at the end of 2024. The VC market sentiment indicator dropped to -4.1 balance points in the fourth quarter of 2024. This decline is primarily an expression of the setback in the assessments of current business conditions, while expectations improved. The improved expectations give reason to be optimistic that the business climate will soon gain new momentum. The initial outlook for investment activity in 2025 therefore remains good despite mixed signals from deal flow. >more

SILENT SUFFERING: USING MACHINE LEARNING TO MEASURE CEO DEPRESSION
Nargess Golshan, and Sung-Yuan (Mark) Cheng
2024
We introduce a novel measure of CEO depression by applying machine learning models that analyze vocal acoustic features from CEOs’ conference call recordings. In this study, we validate this measure and examine associated factors. We find that greater firm risk is positively associated with CEO depression, whereas higher job demands are negatively associated with CEO depression. Female and older CEOs show a lower likelihood of depression. Using this novel measure, we then explore the relationship between CEO depression and career outcomes. Although we do not find any evidence that CEO depression is associated with CEO turnover, we find some evidence that turnover-performance sensitivity is higher among depressed CEOs. We also find limited evidence of higher compensation and higher pay-performance sensitivity for depressed CEOs. This study provides new insights into the relationship between CEO mental health and career outcomes. >more

GAMBLING ON CRYPTO TOKENS?
Sudheer Chava, Fred Hu, and Nikhil Paradkar
2024
We proxy retail investor attention through Google Trends and find that fungible and non-fungible crypto tokens generate greater attention from high--gambling propensity regions. Crypto attention is higher during bubble-like episodes in the crypto market and for more lottery-like tokens. Moreover, retail crypto attention decreases after sports gambling is legalized. Higher token attention is associated with more contributors and higher fundraising. However, consumer credit default rates spike after periods of high crypto attention, but solely in the subprime segment. Overall, our findings suggest that gambling preferences strongly predict retail investor interest in the crypto market. >more