NEWSLETTER of August 8, 2025

The following content has been added at finexpert:

KfW Research
KFW-IFO-KREDITHÜRDE: KREDITZUGANG FÜR KMU IMMER BESCHWERLICHER
According to their own assessment, small and medium-sized enterprises are finding it increasingly difficult to obtain loans. In the second quarter of 2025, access to credit for SMEs continued to deteriorate. 35.2% of SMEs reported difficulties in credit negotiations, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. This was the third consecutive increase and reached a record high since the time series began in 2017. >more

PwC
KRISEN UND UNSICHERHEITEN BREMSEN M&A IN TRANSPORT UND LOGISTIK
Digital transformation, new market entrants, changing business models: transport and logistics are undergoing radical change. What impact are deals in the industry having? How is digitalisation changing the face of an entire sector? Our Transport & Logistics Barometer provides answers – and not just to these questions. The Barometer provides a 360-degree view of the entire industry and analyses the impact of social change and global megatrends on the industry. >more

Allianz
3.5% TO 2035: BRIDGING THE GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE GAP
Over the next decade, the global economy will need to invest nearly 3.5% of GDP per year (USD 4.2trn) to future-proof social, transport, energy and  digital infrastructure against megatrends such as urbanization, supply-chain disruptions and AI-driven digitalization. Demographic shifts and urbanization are key drivers for infrastructure demand in emerging markets, while aging infrastructure needs an upgrade in developing markets. At the same time, geopolitical tensions and pandemic disruptions exposed the fragility of supply chains, prompting the US and Europe to reshore or “friendshore” some critical manufacturing, spurring demand for domestic manufacturing facilities and associated logistics infrastructure (warehouses, ports, rail). >more

KfW Research
GERMAN PRIVATE EQUITY BAROMETER: GESCHÄFTSKLIMA AUF DEM DEUTSCHEN PRIVATE EQUITY-MARKT VERBESSERT SICH SPRUNGHAFT 
The mood on the German private equity market rose sharply in early summer. The business climate indicator for the segment of the equity capital market focused on investments in established companies jumped by 33.3 points to -3.9 points, just below its long-term average. This is the second-highest gain for the indicator since measurements began. >more
 

SHOW ME THE RECEIPTS: B2B PAYMENT TIMELINESS AND EXPECTED RETURNS
Paul Lieberman, Atanas Mihov, Andy Naranjo, and Mihail Velikov
2025
Trade credit is an important source of firm financing, yet its rich informational content is under-explored in asset pricing. Using an extensive data set from a leading private information exchange on business payment performance, we study the effects of trade credit payment timeliness on stock returns. We document two distinct channels through which trade credit payment behavior impacts future stock returns – slow diffusion of information and risk stemming from a customer firm’s vertical bargaining power position in the  supply chain. Consistent with our first channel, a sudden delay in a firm’s payment to its suppliers predicts significantly lower future returns for its stock. Consistent with our second channel, firms that pay their bills moderately late on a consistent basis relative to terms earn significantly higher stock returns. >more

DEFUNDING CONTROVERSIAL INDUSTRIES: CAN TARGETED CREDIT RATIONING CHOKE FIRMS?
Kunal Sachdeva, André F. Silva, Pablo Slutzky, and Billy Xu
2023
This paper examines the effects of targeted credit rationing by banks on firms likely to generate negative externalities. We exploit an initiative of the U.S. Department of Justice, labeled Operation Choke Point, which compelled banks to limit relationships with firms in industries prone to fraud and money laundering. Using supervisory loan-level data, we find that, as intended, targeted banks reduce lending and terminate relationships with affected firms. However, most firms fully substitute credit through non-targeted banks under similar terms. Overall, the performance and investment of these firms remain unchanged, suggesting that targeted credit rationing is widely ineffective in promoting change. >more