NEWSLETTER of January 9, 2026

The following content has been added at finexpert:

PwC
EMISSIONSMARKT DEUTSCHLAND: Q4 2025
Despite a stable market environment and strong indices, significantly fewer companies in Germany ventured onto the stock market in 2025 than we had expected a year ago: Following the cancellation of several IPOs in the second and third quarters, 2025 will go down in history as a disappointing IPO year. While other European and global markets had a good IPO year, this was not the case in Germany: the low level of issuance activity reflects the cautious behavior of investors. On the one hand, the German economy is in a difficult situation characterized by uncertainty. On the other hand, we are seeing greater flexibility on the part of issuers with regard to transaction structures. >more

KfW Research
KFW-KREDITMARKTAUSBLICK DEZEMBER 2025
The expected economic recovery in Germany will also have a positive impact on the credit market. In the third quarter, annual growth in new corporate lending already accelerated slightly to 1.9%. However, momentum remains weak: adjusted for price changes, new lending declined. Increased default risks are contributing to banks continuing to apply strict lending standards, and the decline in lending rates is coming to an end. Nevertheless, the credit market could break out of its slump in 2026. Due to the German government's spending package, we expect not only more economic growth, but also a revival of investment activity. This will be accompanied by rising financing requirements for companies, and the risks associated with lending are likely to decline again for banks. We therefore see credit growth of around 3% at the beginning of the year – with potential for more as the year progresses. >more

Coinbase
2026 CRYPTO MARKET OUTLOOK
Welcome to our fourth annual Crypto Market Outlook report, where we dive deep into the forces that will shape the cryptoeconomy in the year ahead. From detailed outlooks on BTC, ETH, and SOL to the latest developments in regulation, market structure, and tokenization, we cover all the bases. We also analyze the implications of bitcoin's four-year cycle, the risks posed by quantum computing, and the impact of major platform upgrades, like Ethereum's latest Fusaka Hard Fork and Solana's upcoming Alpenglow launch. >more

Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft | Interhyp AG
INTERHYP-IW-ERSCHWINGLICHKEITSINDEX: ERSCHWINGLICHKEIT VON EIGENTUMSWOHNUNGEN STAND OKTOBER 2025
This analysis of condominiums follows on from the summer 2025 edition, which focused on typical single-family homes. Both segments are key routes to home ownership, but differ significantly in terms of price structure, demand profile, and regional distribution. Condominiums therefore deserve separate consideration. Focusing on apartments opens up another important perspective on affordability, which meaningfully complements the overall picture of home ownership. With the focus on condominiums, the question of affordability arises under new circumstances: How does the monthly financing burden relate to disposable income? How big are the regional differences in the relationship between prices, interest rates, and purchasing power? And how have conditions changed since the interest rate turnaround in 2022 and the significant price movements of recent years? >more

THE SECULAR DECLINE IN INTEREST RATES AND THE RISE OF SHADOW BANKS
Andrés Sarto, and Olivier Wang
2025
Over the past two decades, shadow banks have significantly expanded their share of residential mortgage lending, even surpassing pre-financial crisis levels. This surge is often attributed to post-crisis regulatory changes and improvements in shadow banks’ technology. In this paper, we document a new driving force: the persistent decline in interest rates. When interest rates are high, cheap deposit funding provides banks with a significant competitive advantage against shadow banks relying on wholesale funding. As interest rates plummet, banks lose this advantage, experience a squeeze in their net interest margin, leading to diminished profitability, weaker growth, and cost-cutting measures such as branch closures. By contrast, shadow banks are able to gain market share. We test this mechanism using a shift-share empirical design based on differences in historical bank balance sheet composition. We find that banks more vulnerable to falling interest rates contracted lending as a response to lower profitability while also scaling back non-interest expenses on their branches. This created a fertile environment for non-banks to expand in areas with banks exposed to declining interest rates. >more

INVESTING IN MISALLOCATION
Mete Kilic, and Selale Tuzel
2025
We document that 20% of Compustat firms exhibit above-median investment rates despite having below-median marginal product of capital (MPK), seemingly "misallocating" resources. These firms are typically younger and more likely to experience substantial upwards jumps in sales and MPK in subsequent years. They contribute significantly to innovation, and their investments predict future aggregate productivity, creating value beyond their current MPK. We propose and estimate a simple endogenous firm growth model that captures key cross-sectional features and enables counterfactual analysis. Ignoring the potential for future jumps in hypothetical investment policies reduces MPK and investment dispersion but also lowers aggregate productivity. >more