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NEWSLETTER of December 2, 2022


The following content has been added at finexpert:


Studies > Performance

BNP Paribas
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2023 – INVESTING IN AN AGE OF TRANSFORMATION
The global economy seems on an inevitable march towards recession. The causes are well known: central banks aggressively raising policy rates to reduce inflation, an energy shock in Europe, zero-Covid policies (ZCP) and a shaky property market in China. Chief market strategist Daniel Morris explains. Much of Europe is already in recession. We expect one to begin in the US in the third quarter of 2023, and while China’s growth will likely not turn negative, it will be below historic levels. One can easily think of ways in which the situation could yet worsen: a breakdown in a key financial market due to the rapid rise in interest rates, a cold winter and blackouts in Europe, or a flare-up in geopolitical tensions between the US and China. >more

Studies > Jobs | Opportunities

CMS
UPDATE ARBEITSRECHT DEZEMBER 2022
From January 1, 2023, legislators will require all companies in Germany with at least 3,000 employees to assume greater responsibility for human rights and the environment along their supply chains. For employment lawyers and HR managers, the question is whether the new "Law on Corporate Due Diligence to Prevent Human Rights Violations in Supply Chains" (LkSG for short) has implications for employment law and - if so - which ones. In the focus article of the December issue of our Labor Law Update, you will get an overview of the most important labor law implications of the LkSG. >more

Studies > Macro

Roland Berger
WHAT IF THE EUROZONE WERE TO ENTER A RECESSION?
A menace is haunting Europe - the menace of recession in Europe. If we take the mere technical definition of a recession as a basis – two consecutive quarters of falling GDP – then, by the end of the year, we may be faced with this prospect: the European economy is in recession. >more

Studies > Macro

KfW Research
KFW-KONJUNKTURKOMPASS NOVEMBER 2022
Dwindling purchasing power, enormous uncertainty, rising interest rates and a weak global economy are weighing on economic activity in Germany. After growing by 1.7% in 2022, GDP will contract by 1.0% in 2023. The very steep rises in energy prices due to the war are increasingly filtering through. Inflation will be a very high 8.8% in 2022 and only dip to 6.2% on average across the year 2023. Greenhouse gas emissions will decline, but the drop will be 6% and 5% below the policy target in 2022 and 2023, respectively, as shown by our new indicator, the Ecological Price Tag for GDP. The euro area economy will grow by 3.3% in 2022, and GDP will stagnate in 2023. Given the multiple crisis situation, upward and downward forecasting risks are significantly larger than usual. >more


Research Papers > Corporate Finance

SOCIAL MEDIA AND FINANCIAL NEWS MANIPULATION
Shimon Kogan, Tobias J. Moskowitz, and Marina Niessner
2021
We dissect an undercover SEC investigation into the manipulation of financial news on social media to study the indirect effects of market manipulation. While fraudulent news had a direct impact on retail trading and prices, revelation of the fraud caused market participants to discount all news, including legitimate news, from these platforms. The results highlight the indirect consequences of fraud and its spillover effects that reduce the social network’s impact on information dissemination, especially for small firms. The effect appears to dissipate over time, becoming insignificant a year later. The results highlight the importance of social capital for financial activity. >more

Research Papers > Corporate Valuation

TRADING ON TALENT: HUMAN CAPITAL AND FIRM PERFORMANCE
Anastassia Fedyk, and James Hodson
2022
How is skilled human capital reflected in firm performance? By directly observing the monthly career migration patterns of 37 million employees of US public companies, along with their education, demographics, and skills, we explore firm-level "skill premia." Our key empirical finding is that, contrary to the individual-level patterns documented by the labor economics literature, technical and social skillsets negatively forecast both financial and operational performance at the firm level. We explore several potential mechanisms for this finding. Social skillsets display counter-cyclical performance, suggesting that their negative premia reflect their risk profiles. Meanwhile, negative premia on technical skillsets show patterns consistent with over-exuberance regarding contemporaneous popular technologies: IT and Mobile Networks skillsets carry negative premia in the early 2000s, while Data Analysis, Software Engineering, and Web Development display negative premia during the 2010s. >more

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