NEWSLETTER of April 22, 2022

The following content has been added at finexpert:

Value Trust | finexpert

German Takeover Report 2022 Vol. 8 02|2022   >more

Content
3 Market Overview
12 Capital Market Reaction
16 Statements & Fairness Opinions
22 Success Rates
27 Takeover Case Study: Deutsche Wohnen SE
30 Endgame Analysis
35 Transaction Details 2021

Morgan Stanley | Oliver Wyman
CLIMATE, CRYPTO, AND COMPETING IN THIS CYCLE
Wholesale banks face new uncertainties in 2022, but six market shifts will support revenue and returns over the next three years. Banks must take advantage and purposely face two major disruptions on the horizon: Climate Transition and Digital Assets. The franchise hangs in the balance. >more

Lazard
OUTLOOK ON EMERGING MARKETS
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a high-risk, dramatic event that continues to reshape the geopolitical map, stoke inflation, and add volatility to emerging markets equities. It’s difficult to overstate how dramatic the invasion was for the Russian market—and commodity prices. In other emerging markets countries, however, the overall decline has been relatively modest. Latin American markets like Brazil have benefited from higher commodity prices; Beyond Latin America, Saudi Arabia and South Africa have also recorded strong performance. >more

KfW Research
KFW-IFO-KREDITHÜRDE: BANKEN LOCKERN ERNEUT KREDITZUGANG FÜR DEN MITTELSTAND
After demand for credit by small and medium-sized enterprises bottomed out in the summer of 2021, the new KfW ifo Credit Constraint Indicator is now showing a gradual trend reversal. In the first quarter of 2022 more than one fifth (20.6 %) of surveyed SMEs in Germany reported having held loan negotiations with banks (+1.3 percentage points on the previous quarter). SMEs’ appetite for bank finance is still low compared with the long-term average of 26 %, however. The low credit demand from large enterprises even continued to decline. Only 26.3 % of them (-1.5 percentage points) requested a loan from their bank. That was the lowest share recorded since the beginning of the time series in 2017. >more

ZEW
M&A-REPORT APRIL 2022
The M&A Report is compiled jointly by ZEW and Bureau van Dijk. The M&A Report semi-annually informs about current topics and developments in the field of worldwide mergers and acquisitions drawing on the Zephyr database. Zephyr provides detailed information on more than one million M&A, IPO and Private Equity transactions worldwide. >more

INTERNATIONAL DIVERSIFICATION WITH FRONTIER MARKETS
Dave Berger, Kuntara Pukthuanthong, and J. Jimmy Yang
2022
We provide an analysis of frontier market equities with respect to world market integration and
diversification. Principal component results reveal that frontier markets exhibit low levels of integration. In contrast with developed and emerging markets, frontier markets offer no indication of increasing integration through time. Furthermore, individual frontier market countries do not exhibit consistent rates of changing integration. Structural break tests identify breakpoints in integration, as well as integration dynamics across countries. We show that frontier markets have low integration with the world market and thereby offer significant diversification benefits. >more

CAN SOCIAL MEDIA INFORM CORPORATE DECISIONS? EVIDENCE FROM MERGER WITHDRAWALS
J. Anthony Cookson, Marina Niessner, and Christoph Schiller
2022
This paper examines the role of social media in informing corporate decision-making by studying the decision of firm management to withdraw an announced merger. A standard deviation decline in abnormal social media sentiment following a merger announcement predicts a 0.73 percentage point increase in the likelihood of merger withdrawal (18.9% of the baseline rate). The informativeness of social media for merger withdrawals is not explained by abnormal price reactions or news sentiment, and in fact, it is stronger when these other signals disagree. Consistent with learning from external information, we find that the social media signal is most informative for complex mergers in which analyst conference calls take a negative tone, driven by the Q&A portion of the call. Overall, these findings imply that social media is not a sideshow, but an important aspect of firm information environment. >more