PREVIOUS STUDIES 2022 | Macro

Bank for International Settlements
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: DEZEMBER 2022
New BIS analysis of the 2022 Triennial Central Bank Survey shows shifts in trading patterns and market structure in foreign exchange and over-the-counter interest rate derivatives markets, identifying risks deserving attention. Foreign exchange swap positions point to over $80 trillion of hidden US dollar debt, reported off-balance sheet. The volume of daily foreign exchange turnover subject to settlement risk remains stubbornly high despite mechanisms to mitigate such risks. >more
 

Roland Berger
WHAT IF THE EUROZONE WERE TO ENTER A RECESSION?
A menace is haunting Europe - the menace of recession in Europe. If we take the mere technical definition of a recession as a basis – two consecutive quarters of falling GDP – then, by the end of the year, we may be faced with this prospect: the European economy is in recession. >more

KfW Research
KFW-KONJUNKTURKOMPASS NOVEMBER 2022
Dwindling purchasing power, enormous uncertainty, rising interest rates and a weak global economy are weighing on economic activity in Germany. After growing by 1.7% in 2022, GDP will contract by 1.0% in 2023. The very steep rises in energy prices due to the war are increasingly filtering through. Inflation will be a very high 8.8% in 2022 and only dip to 6.2% on average across the year 2023. Greenhouse gas emissions will decline, but the drop will be 6% and 5% below the policy target in 2022 and 2023, respectively, as shown by our new indicator, the Ecological Price Tag for GDP. The euro area economy will grow by 3.3% in 2022, and GDP will stagnate in 2023. Given the multiple crisis situation, upward and downward forecasting risks are significantly larger than usual. >more

FTSE Russell
COP27 NET ZERO ATLAS
Our Cop27 Net Zero Atlas builds on our inaugural report to systematically assess climate targets and mitigation strategies of G20 countries'. It also includes analysis of physical climate risk exposure for each G20 country for the first time. >more

KfW Research
ZWEI NOTENBANKEN – EIN PROBLEM: NACH INFLATION DROHT REZESSION
The record inflation figures of recent months have put the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) under pressure to counter the high price increases with a more restrictive monetary policy. While the Fed started its monetary policy turnaround as early as March, the ECB did not complete its policy reversal until the July 2022 Council meeting. This Focus justifies this difference in the pace of monetary policy action taken so far by the two central banks with the different developments in the economy and the labor market after the pandemic. Since the ECB initiated its turnaround later, the window of opportunity for significant interest rate steps to fight inflation seems much smaller due to the emerging economic slowdown in the eurozone. The ECB is in a difficult position, and whether it can consistently follow through with its further course seems less clear. >more

PwC
NET ZERO ECONOMY INDEX 2022
The results of the new Net Zero Economy Index make it clear that the development of global decarbonization is falling dramatically short of the targets needed to meet the Paris climate agreement. Nearly half of the G20 countries saw an increase in their emissions in 2021. This includes Germany, whose decarbonization rate fell back into negative territory in the new reporting period, with CO2 emissions growing by 1.67 percent, following last year's already only average figure. This is problematic in that the globally required decarbonization rate was already 12.9 percent last year, while the global community only averaged 0.5 percent. The consequence of this shortfall: The new benchmark now grows to 15.2 percent. >more

Bank for International Settlements
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: SEPTEMBER 2022
Market swings reflected investors' evolving perception of the outlook for inflation and monetary policy during the period under review, the Bank for International Settlements says in the September 2022 BIS Quarterly Review. News about inflation, and investors' views of the policy response, drove markets while the growth outlook deteriorated on fallout from the war in Ukraine and further weakness in China. From mid-June to end-July, equity and credit markets rallied on expectations that the path for policy rates would flatten after aggressive hikes. In August, risky asset markets reversed course and yields climbed amid a more forceful policy response to higher inflation. >more

CDP | Oliver Wyman
MISSING THE MARK: 2022 ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL CDP TEMPERATURE RATINGS
As we approach COP27, this report uses CDP’s latest temperature ratings to assess whether current corporate emissions reduction targets are ambitious enough to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°Celsius goal. CDP temperature ratings compare our comprehensive dataset of publicly disclosed corporate emissions target disclosures, covering more than 4,000 companies globally, with science-based global warming trajectories. The report was prepared in partnership with Oliver Wyman. >more

World Bank Group
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT?
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has ignited a debate about the possibility of a global recession — a contraction in global per capita GDP. Drawing on insights gained from previous global recessions, this study presents a systematic analysis of the recent evolution of economic activity and policies, and a model-based assessment of possible near-term macroeconomic outcomes. >more

UBS
ANSWERING THREE KEY QUESTIONS FOR THE REST OF 2022
Rate hikes, a negative European winter, and an end to China’s economic slowdown are three key areas demanding focus for the rest of the year. Here, the multi-asset strategy team shares their insight on these areas. >more

Goldman Sachs
EUROPE’S ENERGY CRISIS IS AT A TIPPING POINT
Russia’s shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline threatens to further squeeze the disposable income of Europeans. A typical family in the EU could face energy bills of €500 per month by early next year without the introduction of price caps, according to Goldman Sachs Research – up 200% from 2021. >more

Bridgewater Associates
EUROPE’S STAGFLATION IS DIFFERENT IN KIND AND MUCH HARDER TO REMEDY
Europe’s energy supply shock is creating a painful stagflation, and policy makers face a difficult set of choices. Looking forward, structurally higher energy prices will be a long-term competitiveness challenge for Europe. >more

Rothschild
MONTHLY MACRO INSIGHTS – AUGUST 2022
Global slowdown has intensified amid a combination of surging inflation, tightening financial conditions and sliding sentiment. In fact, it is likely that world GDP shrunk in Q2 2022 – for the first time since the 2020 pandemic related decrease – owing to economic downturns in China, Russia and the US. Is bad news truly good news? >more

Goldman Sachs
HOW EUROPE CAN REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS AND STILL ACHIEVE ITS NET-ZERO EMISSIONS GOALS
The tensions between Russia and the rest of Europe over natural gas flows have underscored the unsustainability of the continent’s energy system. But with the right mix of infrastructure investment, Europe can emerge from the upheaval with a system that is cheaper, achieves the continent’s net-zero carbon emissions goals and is more secure. The spending is estimated to eventually pay for itself from savings on energy imports, according to Goldman Sachs Research. It will take €10 trillion of investment by 2050 for Europe to transform its energy infrastructure, according to Goldman Sachs’ Carbonomics framework. That amounts to around €350 billion each year, around 2% of gross domestic product by 2030. >more

Deutsche Bank Research
DEUTSCHLAND-MONITOR BAUFINANZIERUNG Q3 2022
In 2022 as a whole, GDP growth is expected to reach only 1.2% and in 2023 GDP is likely to contract by 1% as the negative effects of the gas crisis persist and, in addition, the US economy could slip into recession. We expect annual average inflation of 8% in 2022 and 6% in 2023, with 5-10 year mortgage rates at 2.45% at year-end 2022 and a further increase to 2.95% by year-end 2023. The supply shortage is likely to be eliminated later than we had calculated in the 2022 Housing Market Outlook. Given the significant rise in mortgage rates since December, affordability has fallen sharply. >more

Oliver Wyman
ENERGIESOUVERÄNITÄT: DER PREIS DER UNABHÄNGIGKEIT
The reduction of German gas imports from Russia has far-reaching consequences and is associated with cuts in consumption for many people in Germany: If gas imports were to stop in the short term, energy prices could rise by up to 130 percent. But the consequences are also enormous for energy-intensive industries, small and medium-sized enterprises and energy suppliers. >more

Handelsblatt Research Institute | Roland Berger | Latham Watkins
KOMPASS FÜR DEUTSCHLAND: HANDLUNGSDRUCK IN UNGEWISSEN ZEITEN
Rarely have there been so many crises at the same time, and never have the challenges of our globalized world been more evident: Corona pandemic, supply chain problems, Ukraine war, energy and raw material shortages, and massive inflation - all these disruptive events have unforeseeable economic consequences worldwide. All major industrialized nations are equally affected: While the U.S. is struggling with massive inflation and the European Union (EU) is additionally being tested by the Ukraine war, China's economy is slipping further and further due to ongoing lockdowns under the zero-covid strategy. As a result, GDP (gross domestic product) forecasts for Europe, China and the U.S.A. are falling almost in lockstep and a "triple recession" is looming. >more

World Bank Group
GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, JUNE 2022
The world economy continues to suffer from a series of destabilizing shocks. After more than two years of pandemic, the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and its global effects on commodity markets, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions have steepened the slowdown in global growth. In particular, the war in Ukraine is leading to soaring prices and volatility in energy markets, with improvements in activity in energy exporters more than offset by headwinds to activity in most other economies. The invasion of Ukraine has also led to a significant increase in agricultural commodity prices, which is exacerbating food insecurity and extreme poverty in many emerging market and developing economies. Numerous risks could further derail what is now a precarious recovery. >more

Lazard
POLICY BRIEF: HOW TO MAKE SOVEREIGN DEBT RESTRUCTURING MORE EFFECTIVE
As public debt issuance has surged in recent years, so too have situations of debt distress in developing and emerging countries. Existing debt restructuring tools are not effective in handling these debt crises, however, with creditors finding it exceedingly difficult to efficiently restructure sovereign debt using today’s processes and procedures. In this policy paper, Lazard supports the case for the comparability of treatment for all creditors and makes the case for the adoption of simple, precise, transparent and equitable guidelines to enable expeditious sovereign debt restructuring. >more

European Investment Bank
HOW BAD IS THE UKRAINE WAR FOR THE EUROPEAN RECOVERY?
Before the war, the European economy was experiencing a heady recovery. The one-two punch of higher energy prices and trade disruptions, however, could destabilise EU firms already weakened by the pandemic, according to a new report published by the European Investment Bank. Simulations by the European Investment Bank find that the share of EU firms losing in money could rise, particularly among businesses hit by lower exports to Ukraine, Russia and Belarus and those exposed to higher energy prices. At the same time, rising inflation could push more Europeans under the poverty line. >more

Bank for International Settlements
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: JUNE 2022
The BIS Quarterly Review examines developments in international banking and financial markets. Published in March, June, September and December, it comprises a review of market developments over the past quarter, and special features that analyse topical economic and financial issues. The June 2022 Quarterly Review analyses how geography, regulation and taxation set cross-border financial centres apart and propelled their rise. >more

Baker McKenzie
TRENDS AND SPOTLIGHTS OF THE CHINESE INVESTMENT LANDSCAPE
Baker McKenzie’s eighth annual analysis of Chinese outbound investment trends, conducted in partnership with Rhodium Group, details Mainland China’s movements in the ever-changing global market, driven by investors’ desires for broader market entry, strategic synergy, access to resources and new energy, and expansion of technology and product portfolios. >more

KfW Research
ENERGIEKOSTEN IM MITTELSTAND STEIGEN: UNTERNEHMEN GEBEN PREISERHÖHUNGEN WEITER UND ERGREIFEN MAßNAHMEN ZUR ENERGIEEINSPARUNG
The consequences of the war in Ukraine are already being felt by SMEs: In January-April 2022, energy costs were higher at 54% of companies than in the corresponding period of the previous year. On average, energy costs have risen by 41%. Nevertheless, the majority of companies see themselves in a position to financially shoulder higher energy costs at the current level, even in the longer term. The decisive factor here is that energy costs often account for only a small proportion of total costs. >more

Deloitte
PERSPEKTIVEN 2030: WACHSTUMSCHANCEN FÜR DEUTSCHLAND
Germany as a business location is facing a formative decade: In addition to current crises, macro trends with a long-term impact require the fundamental transformation of the economy and society. In addition to numerous challenges, this transformation holds great potential for prosperity and sustainable growth: Economic output in Germany could increase by an average of 3.4 percent per year by the end of the decade - with a direct impact on per capita income and prosperity in this country. >more

KfW Research
MITTELSTAND: ZAGHAFTES DURCHATMEN NACH KRIEGSSCHOCK IM VORMONAT
The KfW-ifo SME Barometer indicator family is based on a scale-of-enterprise evaluation of the ifo Business Survey, from which the well-known ifo Business Climate Index is calculated. Around 9,000 companies from the manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services sectors (excluding financial services, insurance and government) are surveyed each month on their economic situation, including around 7,500 SMEs. Enterprises are generally classed as small to medium-sized if they employ a workforce of not more than 500 and record an annual turnover not exceeding EUR 50 million. >more

Insight Investment
GLOBAL MACRO RESEARCH: CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCIES
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) represent a new and safer form of digital payment, which are being investigated and developed by central banks around the world. From the various implications of CBDCs for economies and markets, we believe the most significant is the ability to target fiscal policy in unprecedented ways. In the race for implementation, China and Sweden are currently ahead of the pack with the US moving only slowly. Over the long term, this could lead to pressure on the US dollar as it loses market share as the predominant reserve currency. >more

KPMG
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
As last year drew to a close, KPMG’s H2’2021 Global Economic Outlook was published. At the time, I described the previous twelve months as turbulent and uncertain with a constant wave of challenges and threats. Today, we find ourselves in an arguably even more unsettling period. As COVID-19 restrictions gradually eased throughout the world, there was a glimmer of hope that economies could slowly rebuild and return to a period of sustainable long-term growth. The war in Ukraine dealt a hammer blow to international confidence and economic stability, forcing us all to, once again, identify risks and focus on contingency planning and resilience. >more

J.P. Morgan
GUIDE TO THE MARKETS EUROPE: Q2 2022
Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics for Europe. This includes information about equities, fixed income and other asset classes as well as macroeconomic analyses. >more

Bank for International Settlements
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: MARCH 2022
The March 2022 BIS Quarterly Review showcases research that highlights the key issue of the funding sources of financial intermediaries and how this affects the volatility of lending by both banks and non-banks. It also contains a special feature examining possible paths for post-pandemic growth. Non-banks play an important role in syndicated lending to non-financial firms, as authors Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr (BIS) and Haonan Zhou (Princeton) show in their special feature. They find that lending by non-banks is more concentrated, fluctuates more with risk conditions and – being riskier – attracts higher spreads than lending by banks. One aspect of this volatility is that non-banks curtail lending to foreign borrowers more than banks do at times of domestic financial stress, thereby magnifying the transmission of shocks across countries. >more

Roland Berger
DIE DEUTSCHE KONJUNKTUR 2022
The expected significant recovery of the German economy last year and in particular a strong final sprint failed to materialize. In spring last year, the German government had forecast growth of 3.5% for 2021. But Germany's gross domestic product increased by only 2.8% in 2021. This means that growth in the German economy fell well short of expectations. >more

Kearney
EUROPE’S URGENT NEED TO INVEST IN A LEADING-EDGE SEMICONDUCTOR ECOSYSTEM
Today’s chip shortage has put a spotlight on the degree to which the European economy depends on semiconductors. With limited local production capability and capacity, Europe risks its technological sovereignty and needs to correct course to maintain long-term competitiveness. >more

BlackRock
A WORLD SHAPED BY SUPPLY
We are in a new and unusual market regime, underpinned by a new macro landscape where inflation is shaped by supply constraints. Limits on supply have driven the surge in inflation over the past year: a profound change from the decades-long dominance of demand drivers. This fundamentally changes how we should think about the macro environment and the market implications. The key to understanding the muted response of central banks to inflation is not the timeframe but its cause: supply. Much of the 2021 debate overlooked this. >more

KfW Research
CHINAS LANGFRISTIGE ENTWICKLUNGSZIELE ALS HERAUSFORDERUNG FÜR DIE PRODUKTIVITÄT
China's two longer-term development goals are to achieve high-income country status by 2025 and to double economic output by 2035. Achieving the first goal requires only a growth rate in nominal gross national income per capita of 4% per year on average. The second target, on the other hand, is more ambitious. This is because the contribution of capital to growth will continue to decline, partly because the ongoing restructuring of the growth model implies that investment will lose importance in favor of consumption. This development must be offset by general productivity gains and human capital formation. >more

Roland Berger
WHAT IF - THE CURRENT INFLATION RATES ARE NOT A TRANSITORY PHENOMENON?
The adjective "transitory" has every chance of being chosen as one of the words of 2021. At least among central bankers and analysts. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently revised his view that the current inflation rate of 6.8% in the US is a "transitory" phenomenon, fueling speculation about an imminent tightening of monetary policy by the Fed, the ECB has so far stuck to its assessment that the current inflation rate is a transitory phenomenon. >more

KfW Research
FINANZIERUNG ÖFFENTLICHER INVESTITIONEN: KREDITE ALLEIN HELFEN DEN KOMMUNEN NICHT
The economic consequences of the Corona pandemic and the enormous investment requirements for the major social transformations such as climate protection, digitization and demographic change are creating new challenges for municipalities. The question of financing is one of the most urgent open issues. It will not be possible to pay for the investments from current budgets alone, which is why municipal loans in particular will play an important role. However, there are limits to the indebtedness of cities, municipalities and counties. Without a structural improvement in municipal finances, Germany will therefore not be able to cope with the upcoming investments in the future. >more