STUDIES | ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

Deutsche Bank Research
FIVE REASONS WHY BITCOIN PRICES ARE HIGH AND WILL STAY HIGH
On March 13, Bitcoin prices reached a new all-time high of $73,157. This remarkable performance has been fuelled by five key factors: the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, expectations of future ETF approvals, the upcoming Bitcoin halving (expected April 19th), impending central bank rate cuts, and regulation. >more

Neuberger Berman
PRIVATE MARKETS Q4 2023 PRELIMINARY VALUATION SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS
For Q4 2023, based on preliminary analysis, NB Private Markets currently anticipates that buyout funds will increase in value by an average of 5.0% in USD while venture capital funds will increase in value by 4.2% on average. Furthermore, we see that 86% of buyout funds experienced positive NAV growth in Q4 with 75% of funds increasing in value between 0-10% during the quarter. For calendar year 2023, preliminary reporting indicates that buyout funds and venture capital funds increased in value by an average of 10.2% and 3.3%, respectively. >more

FTI Andersch | Center for Corporate Transactions and Private Equity (CCTPE) at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management
DIE WIDERSTANDSFÄHIGKEIT DER PRIVATE EQUITY-BRANCHE: AUSWIRKUNGEN VON KRISEN AUF DIE LEISTUNGSFÄHIGKEIT VON PORTFOLIO-UNTERNEHMEN
Only just under one in four private equity funds surveyed in Germany (23%) reported rising earnings (EBITDA) from their portfolio companies in the last twelve months. A large proportion had expected a different economic development: almost 40 percent of the funds stated that the EBITDA of their portfolio companies was below their own expectations. For almost half of the funds surveyed, the liquidity of the portfolio companies also developed worse than expected. This is the result of a recent study by management consultancy FTI-Andersch and the Center for Corporate Transactions and Private Equity (CCTPE) at HHL Leipzig Graduate School of Management. >more

Bain & Company
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY REPORT 2024
The year 2023 was one of portent. Deal value fell by 37%. Exit value slid by almost half. Fund-raising dropped across private capital, and 38% fewer buyout funds closed. Interestingly, dollar commitments in buyouts surged as a number of high-performing funds came to market. But it was truly a year of haves and have-nots. Just 20 funds accounted for more than half of all buyout capital raised. The word for this market is stalled. The culprit was the sharp and rapid increase in central bank rates, which caused general partners to hit the pause button. The good news? Interest rates appear to have stabilized. Record dry powder is stacked and ready for deployment. Nearly half of all global buyout companies have been held for at least four years. In short, the conditions appear to be shifting in favor of hitting the go button. We will see what 2024 brings. >more

Antares Capital
2024 OUTLOOK: PERSPECTIVES ON PRIVATE AND LIQUID CREDIT
As we enter 2024, we believe the read on most key middle market loan metrics suggests the opportunity for prudently deploying new private debt capital remains quite favorable. All-in yields and the middle market yield premium remain at the high end of their long-term range; total debt-to-EBITDA leverage has declined below its long-term average; PE sponsor LBO equity contributions are near record highs; and first-lien yield per unit of leverage (excluding unitranche) remains near the highest it has been since at least 2013. Less constructive is LBO EBITDA-to-cash interest given the spike in interest rates. >more

Lazard
2023 SECONDARY MARKET REPORT
The secondary market ended on a strong note in 2023, delivering a third consecutive year of estimated volumes in excess of $100 billion and notching the market’s second highest annual tally in 2023. Across both the GP-led and LP-led markets, a continued lack of liquidity from traditional sources drove investors to seek more innovative methods of generating proceeds through the secondary market. The market experienced a relatively slow first half of 2023 and then a very strong second half as investors and sellers appeared to perceive opportunity and bid-ask spreads narrowed. >more

Aurum
HEDGE FUND INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE DEEP DIVE – FULL YEAR 2023
A resurgence in risk assets provided a significant tailwind to more long-biased and/or historically higher beta strategies, which were among the worst performing strategies in 2022. There are a handful of sub-strategies that delivered strong performance both in 2022 and 2023 – quant – stat arb was up 10.9% in 2023 and 12.7% in 2022. While macro – FIRV was up 10.9% and 8.4%. Five-year performance (CAR) for hedge funds now stands at 6.5%, comfortably outperforming bonds (-0.4%) but underperforming equities (+9.4%) from a total return perspective, however, outperforming equities from a risk-adjusted perspective (Sharpe of 0.7 vs 0.5). Dispersion has continued to fall and now sits at levels more in line with those observed pre-COVID. >more

KfW Research
GERMAN PRIVATE EQUITY BAROMETER Q4 2023
The data for the business climate indexes of the German Private Equity Barometer and the German Venture Capital Barometer are taken from a quarterly survey of the approx. 200 members of the German Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (Bundesverband Deutscher Kapitalbeteiligungsgesellschaften – BVK) and further German private equity companies. On the one side, the market climate in the later-stage segment is reported and on the other the market climate in the venture capital segment of the German equity capital market. The climate data are based on estimates from investment companies, with the focus being on established SMEs for the German Private Equity Barometer and on investment in start-ups and new technology companies for the German Venture Capital Barometer. >more

KPMG
VENTURE PULSE Q4 2023
2023 was a particularly difficult year for VC investment globally given the significant economic challenges, geopolitical tensions and conflicts, and ongoing concerns related to the valuations of VC-backed companies. Both annual global VC investment and the total number of VC deals globally fell to levels not seen since 2019 as VC investors continued to show an abundance of caution with respect to their dealmaking activities. >more

Lazard
2024 EUROPEAN VENTURE & GROWTH OUTLOOK
A key challenge over the past 18 months has been the recycling of invested capital, driven by the fall in primary issuance and lower exit volumes. Heading into 2024, a growing IPO backlog and signs of increased strategic and sponsor participation could help increase levels of DPI. In turn, this may encourage European venture-backed companies and investors to return to the equity funding market. >more

KfW Research
VENTURE CAPITAL: MARKTBEOBACHTUNG MIT SOCIAL MEDIA-SENTIMENT-ANALYSEN
Private markets, such as the VC market, are characterized by the fact that they are comparatively illiquid, meaning that external influences are only slowly reflected in observable market variables such as valuations and transaction volumes. In addition, the corresponding information on private markets is only publicly known to a limited extent. Both of these factors make it difficult to observe market movements in real time. Due to the active communication of many market participants on social media, these represent an interesting alternative source of information. >more

Bain & Company
GLOBAL HEALTHCARE PRIVATE EQUITY REPORT 2024
Investors continue trying to unlock liquidity and raise capital for healthcare deals, in a challenging fund-raising environment. Biopharma deals represent the biggest share of healthcare buyouts, while new modalities and innovative therapies such as GLP-1s transform the investment landscape. As investors look to diversify their Asia-Pacific buyout activity, India is viewed as a place to deploy healthcare capital at scale. >more

Coller Capital
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY BAROMETER: WINTER 2023-24
Coller Capital’s Barometer is a unique snapshot of global trends in private equity – a twice-yearly overview of the plans and opinions of Limited Partners worldwide. This edition contains findings on: Private market M&A activity expectations; Artificial Intelligence adoption and investment appetite; Investors’ interest in continuation vehicles, co-investment opportunities, and strategy shifts; The impact of interest rates on private credit exposures and the future PE financing outlook, as well as private wealth capital growth expectations; Future target allocation shifts as well as other key themes shaping the private markets industry. >more

M&G Investments
GLOBAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK: NEGOTIATING HIGHER RATES AND OTHER NEW PARADIGMS
With increasing talk of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates, global real estate markets are adapting to new paradigms. Property yields have risen, but not to the same degree as rates, prompting some to suggest further repricing is needed in order to restore spreads. But is real estate dependent on a wide spread over bonds to deliver performance, or can other return drivers compensate? With ongoing inflationary pressures and other headwinds buffeting the global economy, we assess the growth prospects for rents and how they differ across regions and sectors given varied structural and cyclical trends. Investors may be drawn to growth, but are there also attractive income yields to be found? In this Global Real Estate Outlook, we explore the opportunities as well as the risks that need to be considered. >more

UBS | Art Basel
THE ART MARKET 2023
The seventh edition of The Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report provides a comprehensive, macro-economic analysis of the state of the global art market in 2022. The Art Market 2023 looks closely at how the lingering effects of the pandemic continue to affect the market and forecasts what trends could be seen entering 2023. The Art Market 2023 is written by cultural economist Dr. Clare McAndrew, founder of Arts Economics, and published by Art Basel and UBS. >more

BlackRock
GLOBAL REAL ESTATE VIEWPOINT
Today’s macroeconomic environment has triggered a revaluation process in real estate globally. Higher interest rates, inflation and volatility has led investors to command higher risk premiums across asset classes. Private markets started to come under pressure in the second half of 2022 as investors globally are requiring higher risk premiums. Revaluations are occurring at difference paces across various regions and markets. >more

KfW Research
GERMAN VENTURE CAPITAL BAROMETER Q3 2023
The business climate on the German venture capital market remains on course for recovery in late summer 2023. With an increase of 2.4 points to -19.6 balance points, the business climate indicator for the early-stage segment is trending slightly better than in the previous quarter. The assessment of the current business situation is catching up slightly with business expectations, which are still significantly more optimistic. The indicator for the current business situation rose by 7.3 points to -32.4 balance points, while the indicator for business expectations weakened slightly to -6.8 balance points (-2.5 points). >more

Arthur D Little | Invest Europe
THE INSIGHT: STATE OF THE EUROPEAN PRIVATE EQUITY INDUSTRY
Arthur D. Little (ADL) and Invest Europe’s European PE survey, combined with Invest Europe’s first half activity data, takes a clear look at the evolution of fundraising, investment, and divestment in the first six months of the year and gathers fund manager and investor views on the short- and medium-term outlook for activity. The survey also investigates the challenges and opportunities that have the potential to shape Europe’s PE and VC industry further into the future. >more

EIF | Invest Europe
VC SURVEY 2023
The study looks at the current situation, developments in the recent past, and expectations for the future. The respondents of the EIF VC Survey, VC fund managers investing in Europe, revealed very interesting insights, providing a unique picture of the developments and the market sentiment in 2023. >more

Alix Partners
PE ESG SURVEY REPORT
The private equity (PE) industry now routinely considers environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues when evaluating prospective acquisitions and making deals. The ESG label has become a political issue — particularly in North America — but industry leaders recognize that companies with strong governance, openness to the best talent, and environmentally efficient processes — whatever label you give those matters — are good prospects, and industry leaders have been acting accordingly. >more

Lazard
INTERIM SECONDARY MARKET REPORT 2023
Lazard’s Interim Secondary Market Report for 2023 finds that buyer appetite in the secondary market remains resilient, as investors continue to deploy capital into diversified LP portfolios and best-in-class assets, despite the more challenging macroeconomic environment. The report identified two distinct market dynamics: In the LP-led segment, buyers and sellers continued to have difficulties with bid/ask spreads persisting. In the GP-led segment, secondary buyers expressed the need for higher returns and margins of safety. Such dynamics resulted in total secondary deal volumes in the first half of 2023 of approximately $43 billion, down by around 28% compared to H1 2022, with GP-led transactions accounting for 40% of overall volumes. >more

KfW Research
KFW VENTURE CAPITAL-DASHBOARD Q2 2023
In Q2 2023, German startups raised a total of almost EUR 2.5 billion in 266 financing rounds. Thus, deal volume in 2023 increased for the second quarter in a row (+25% QoQ). In contrast, the number of deals declined slightly (-8%). After the cooling in 2022, the German VC market has thus stabilized significantly for the time being in the first half of 2023. Viewed over the entire first half of 2023, deal volume was again higher than in the previous 6 months. >more

Bain & Company
STUCK IN PLACE: PRIVATE EQUITY MIDYEAR REPORT 2023
After a year of sharply rising interest rates, a banking crisis, and widespread geopolitical turbulence, it’s no surprise that private equity (PE) activity continued to slump in 2023’s first half. Uncertainty is the enemy of dealmaking, and uncertainty has been swirling through global markets in abundance. >more

Man Group
Q3 HEDGE FUND STRATEGY OUTLOOK: UPGRADING DISTRESSED AND MERGER ARBITRAGE
The year 2023 continues to be one of uncertainty, which has led to muted returns from many hedge fund strategies during the first half. The weakness of the US banking system and the headwinds from the higher rate regime are at odds with the strong performance of risk assets during the first six months of the year. Forward paths from here remain difficult to discern, but within markets we believe there are more attractive risk/reward trade offs now than earlier in the year. >more

Aurum
HEDGE FUND INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE DEEP DIVE – H1 2023
The hedge fund industry was up 3.4% in H1 23 with performance being heavily weighted to the start of Q1 and the end of Q2. The best performing strategies of 2022 have underperformed significantly in H1 23 as strategies with higher beta to risk assets have led the performance. >more

KPMG
VENTURE PULSE Q2 2023
Investment in the global venture capital market fell dramatically in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year. While global venture capital investments from January to June 2022 were still at $331.1 billion, this sum fell by 50% to just $163.6 billion in the first six months of this year. This almost reached the low level of the Corona year 2020 (156.6 billion). >more

Neuberger Berman
GP-LED SECONDARIES: PRIVATE EQUITY’S MOST UNDERSERVED MARKET?
Over the last 12 to 18 months, we have witnessed a meaningful decline in private equity (PE) exits, which triggered an estimated $106 billion of net cash outflows for PE investors in 2022 alone. In our view, this dynamic — combined with the denominator effect and generally elongating holding periods — is opening attractive opportunities for providers of liquidity to the private markets. We believe GP-orchestrated “continuation funds” can help ameliorate this liquidity challenge and also offer a compelling way for investors to gain exposure to private markets at a potentially attractive point in the cycle and in a targeted, highly selective manner. >more

KfW Research
VENTURE CAPITAL-MARKT IN DEUTSCHLAND DASHBOARD Q1 2023
In the first quarter of 2023, a total of EUR 1.9 billion was invested in 254 financing rounds on the German VC market. In the short term, the market is thus unimpressed by the bankruptcy of the US Silicon Valley Bank. However, a turnaround remains to be seen due to persistently unfavorable conditions (inflation, tightening of monetary policy, poor prospects for IPOs). >more

Coller Capital
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY BAROMETER, SUMMER 2023
Coller Capital’s Barometer is a unique snapshot of global trends in private equity – a twice-yearly overview of the plans and opinions of Limited Partners worldwide. This edition contains findings on: LPs’ expectations for private equity vintage years 2023 and 2024; attractive sectors and strategies for private equity investment; LPs activity around due diligence; challenges for LPs in the fund investment process; LPs’ views on the usefulness of AI in the PE transaction process; LPs views on the ‘anti-ESG’ movement in the US. >more

UBS
QUARTERLY INSIGHTS INTO PRIVATE MARKETS - EDITION MAY 2023
In 2023, persistent high inflation, volatility across the global banking sector, and continued geopolitical conflicts remain key themes for many investors. Against this backdrop, public equities have performed surprisingly well, and markets are finally seeing signs of disinflation with the pricing weakness across the commodity complex, more visibility to peak rates, and contagion from recent bank failures seemingly under control. >more

KfW Research
WAGNISKAPITAL FÜR NET ZERO: POTENZIALE UND HERAUSFORDERUNGEN
Climate-tech investments are on the rise in the VC market. This is the conclusion of a new study by KfW Research, which analyzes developments, potentials and challenges of climate tech on the German VC market. Climate tech plays an important role for the German VC market. In 2022, more than EUR 1.5 billion was invested in 118 financing rounds in Germany. The significant growth in climate-tech investments in the German VC market, was greater than investments in the rest of the market. However, due to the size of the VC market in the U.S., there is significantly more funding available per startup. A survey of German VC investors makes it clear that high growth opportunities arise primarily due to the expected increase in demand from market players. On the other hand, a high technological risk and the high financing requirements pose a particular challenge for investors in the climate tech sector. >more

Bain & Company
IS STRATEGIC M&A FINALLY CATCHING ON IN PRIVATE CAPITAL?
Consider an industry with more than 15,000 firms in which scale can be a clear advantage. Sounds like a fertile field for consolidation, right? Not if the industry happens to be private capital. For much of the industry’s history, consolidation has largely been a nonstarter. Firms have tried over time to expand geographically or add an asset class through M&A. But very often, mergers have foundered on the many levels of integration complexity that arise when private partnerships try to combine. >more

Invest Europe
PRIVATE EQUITY AT WORK REPORT 2023
Now in its fourth year, Invest Europe’s Private Equity at Work report provides unequalled insight into how private equity and venture capital have helped drive the recovery from the effects of the pandemic, creating 6.5% more jobs at companies they backed in 2021, or over five times the average across Europe. With data going back to 2017, the study shows how private equity and venture capital support employment and create jobs year after year, through periods of economic growth and downturn alike. >more

State Street
DIGITAL ASSETS AND INVESTMENT STUDY 2022-2023
State Street commissioned Oxford Economics to conduct a survey of 300 investment institutions, including asset managers, asset owners and insurers, about their approaches to digital assets and investment technology. It significantly expands on our previous research in this field, looking into organizations’ preparedness for incorporating code-based smart contracts, blockchains and other distributed ledger technologies into their investment processes, and their preparedness to hold and trade digitally tokenized versions of traditional securities. >more

Bain & Company
HEALTHCARE PRIVATE EQUITY MARKET 2022: THE YEAR IN REVIEW
2022 was the second-biggest year on record for healthcare private equity by many measures, even though overall activity declined sharply from 2021’s record-breaking highs. The first half of 2022 saw a continuation of 2021’s record-setting pace for healthcare private equity deal volume and deal value, but geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, tight credit, and labor force pressures caught up to the market in the second half. >more

KPMG
VENTURE PULSE Q1 2023
Global VC investment fell to $57 billion in Q1’23 — a particularly low note when compared to the high of $200+ billion seen in the same quarter just one year ago. Myriad factors combined to buffet the global VC market, from the protracted war in the Ukraine and other geopolitical uncertainties to concerns about the global banking system following the sudden turbulence seen in Q1’23. Stubbornly high inflation and still-increasing interest rates have also posed their own challenges. >more

Adams Street
NAVIGATING PRIVATE MARKETS IN 2023: RETHINKING RISK, RESILIENCE, AND RETURNS
A key finding in our third Global Investor Survey is that investors are prioritizing partners that they know and trust. This would seem to be driven by market turbulence, risks from inflation and rising interest rates, and geopolitical tension. As markets surged in 2021, many investors caught FOMO (fear of missing out). The most severe cases led to the deployment of capital at elevated valuations into subscale and unprofitable private companies that may struggle to produce positive returns for investors. >more

Lazard
2022 SECONDARY MARKET REPORT
The secondary market delivered a second consecutive year of estimated volumes in excess of $100B in 2022, continuing to prove itself as a highly relevant part of the private capital markets, irrespective of the macroeconomic environment. That is not to say that the market was immune from the macroeconomic and geopolitical disruption of 2022: volumes were down ~20% on 2021. This decline can be attributed to, amongst other things, bid/ask spreads on LP sales (as declines in the public markets increased the difficulty of assessing the fair value of private investments) and secondary firms increasing selectivity on GP-led deals after a substantial year of deployment in 2021. >more

McKinsey & Compamy
GLOBAL PRIVATE MARKETS REVIEW 2023: PRIVATE MARKETS TURN DOWN THE VOLUME
Private markets have enjoyed strong tailwinds since the depths of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Interest rates stayed low, credit availability was high, and valuations rose consistently. Each year since its inception, this annual publication has discussed new records in fundraising and deal flow while celebrating strong performance across asset classes. Even in 2020, when activity stalled briefly during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, private markets hummed again in the second half. In almost every regard, 2021 was an exceptional year (as we highlighted in last year’s report) but it was not a trend breaker. Markets climbed higher still, awash with central-bank-induced liquidity. In the first half of 2022, central banks fought roaring inflation by sharply raising interest rates, and public market valuations cratered. In the private markets, first-half deal activity softened but subtly so, nearly matching the record-setting pace set in 2021. >more

KfW Research
VENTURE CAPITAL-MARKT IN DEUTSCHLAND DASHBOARD Q4 2022
In the new dashboard on the German venture capital market, KfW Research explains the developments on the market for venture capital in Germany on a quarterly basis. The focus is on investment activity in terms of the number and volume of VC deals with German start-ups by, for example, financing phase, investor origin or technology areas, exit activity and market comparison with important international benchmarks. A look at the development of venture debt transactions rounds off the overview. >more

Bain & Company
GLOBAL PRIVATE EQUITY REPORT 2023
It’s easy to think of Dickens and A Tale of Two Cities when looking back on 2022. The first six months resembled 2021: incredible numbers of deals, lots of exits, and substantial funds committed to the chase for the next five years. Then came the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in June. That move — and those that followed globally — signified the end of cheap debt in buyout markets and raised strong concerns about persistent inflation. Recession fears spooked banks from providing leveraged loans, and the dominoes fell from there, toppling year-end totals for deals, exits, and fund-raising. >more

KfW Research
GERMAN PRIVATE EQUITY BAROMETER 4. QUARTAL 2022
Sentiment in the German private equity market developed positively in the fourth quarter of last year. The business sentiment indicator rose by 9.2 points to -30.8 balance points. While situation assessments deteriorated again, the decline was more than offset by improvements in business expectations. Economic optimism is bolstering sentiment. >more

Lazard
SECONDARY MARKET REPORT 2022
The secondary market delivered a second consecutive year of estimated volumes in excess of $100B in 2022, continuing to prove itself as a highly relevant part of the private capital markets irrespective of the macroeconomic environment. Supporting this statement are a number of key findings from our survey of 2022, which include: GP-led transactions comprised ~43% of the secondary market in 2022, with continuation funds (~75% of the GP-led market) now firmly established alongside IPOs and M&A as a route to liquidity for GPs. LP-led volumes landed at close to ~$60B in 2022, with 500+ transactions completed in this arena, driven predominately by the desire from selling LPs to accelerate liquidity and the denominator effect. >more

Aurum
HEDGE FUND INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE DEEP DIVE – FULL YEAR 2022
The hedge fund industry was down 2.4% in 2022. Global equities and global bonds have fallen 20.0% and 16.7% respectively. It has been an extremely challenging year from both a markets and geopolitical perspective. If one were to sum up 2022 in two words, they could be: ‘extreme moves’. Five-year performance for hedge funds now stands at a CAR of +4.2%, comfortably outperforming bonds (-2.0%) and marginally outperforming equities (+3.0%). Multi-strategy and quant funds were the top performers in 2022; up 9.5% and 8.5% respectively. Long biased and Equity l/s delivered the worst returns; losing 13.2% and 9.6% respectively. >more

KPMG
VENTURE PULSE Q4 2022
Global venture capital investment slumped significantly last year. A total of USD 493.6 billion was invested in startups in 2022 - down from USD 730.5 billion in 2021. This corresponds to a decline of 32%. This is shown by KPMG's new Venture Pulse, for which global venture capital investments are regularly evaluated. September to December 2022 represented the fourth consecutive quarter of decline. The combination of economic and geopolitical pressure, turbulent capital markets and low IPO activity has clearly taken its toll on venture capital investments. >more

KPMG
DIGITAL ASSETS IN DEUTSCHLAND 2022
Despite recent negative price developments and headlines, the mood among private crypto investors remains predominantly positive. This is suggested by the results of a joint survey by KPMG and BTC-ECHO. More than 2,000 private crypto investors in the DACH region were surveyed about their investment behavior (84% of them from Germany). >more

Deloitte
2023 COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Following a pandemic-fueled course correction, the global real estate industry faces transformational shifts in how buildings will be used, valued, and transacted in 2023 and beyond. Ongoing uncertainty in the global economy could impact the industry even more. In the near term, the potential for regional or global recession or stagnation looms – and these impacts would be felt across financial services sectors. Deloitte surveyed 450 chief financial officers of major commercial real estate owners and investors to get their opinions about organizational growth and their plans for workforce, regulatory compliance, and technology. We also asked about their investment priorities and anticipated structural changes in 2023. >more