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German Export Sector

Deutsche Bank Research
GLOBAL HEADWINDS MAKE CONTINENTAL VALUE CHAINS MORE ATTRACTIVE
The German export sector has had to cope with numerous challenges over the last few years. These include “homemade” problems, above all in the auto industry, but also the shift in US trade policy. Climate change has become an increasingly important issue, too; in fact, it implies massive changes. That is why the long-term trend in many manufacturing sectors appeared unclear even ahead of the coronavirus pandemic. Now, COVID-19 has compounded already existing uncertainties. From our vantage point, a number of reasons support our hypothesis that continental value chains are likely to gain importance. >more


BIS June 2020

Bank for International Settlements
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: JUNE 2020
This Quarterly Review draws on several BIS data sets to examine emerging market corporates' external and foreign currency debt on the eve of the Covid-19 outbreak.  It also assesses whether emerging market government debt is a cause for concern. >more
 


Debt Dynamics

Goldman Sachs
DAUNTING DEBT DYNAMICS
Government deficits, debt issuance and debt levels are set to surge as countries race to ease the economic impact of the coronacrisis. This raises many questions: who will finance this debt, will it force a market repricing and/or an eventual growth or inflation problem, and would greater use of negative rates help avoid any of these risks? At the same time, whether corporate bankruptcies could derail the economic recovery is a key concern. In short, how disruptive the recent, dramatic shift in debt dynamics might be is Top of Mind. >more


Global Economy

The World Bank
PANDEMIC, RECESSION: THE GLOBAL ECONOMY IN CRISIS
COVID-19 has triggered the deepest global recession in decades. While the ultimate outcome is still uncertain, the pandemic will result in contractions across the vast majority of emerging market and developing economies. It will also do lasting damage to labor productivity and potential output. The immediate policy priorities are to alleviate the human costs and attenuate the near-term economic losses. Once the crisis abates, it will be necessary to reaffirm a credible commitment to sustainable policies and undertake the reforms necessary to buttress long-term prospects. Global coordination and cooperation will be critical. >more


Saving and Cash

Deutsche Bank Research
SAVING DURING THE CORONA CRISIS: CASH IS KING
German households saved surprisingly little money during Q1; their bank deposits were only up by EUR 5.8 bn. In the lockdown month of March, deposits even declined by EUR 11.1 bn, as households withdrew a lot of cash due to the uncertain situation. During the current quarter, however, households will probably build up deposits substantially in order to prepare for potential income losses. By contrast, retail loans continued to increase strongly in Q1 and may cool down only in the medium term. >more


COVID-19 Resilience in Germany

Deutsche Bank Research
COVID-19: CRISIS RESILIENCE MADE IN GERMANY
Germany has got COVID-19 under control faster than many other countries. It also recorded one of the lowest infection fatality rates among the G10 countries. The complete fiscal policy U-turn in response to COVID-19 induced economic damage should allow the German economy to weather this crisis better than many other countries – although the impact will still be massive. We have identified six structural features of the German society contributing to its superior collective resilience. >more


Location Germany

EY
STANDORT DEUTSCHLAND 2020
Europe was able to maintain its position as an attractive investment location last year and attracted a total of 6,412 investment projects from foreign companies. This is one percent more than in the previous year and the second highest figure ever measured. Thanks to an increase of 17 percent, France took first place in the country comparison for the first time - ahead of Great Britain and Germany. While Great Britain registered five percent more projects than in 2018 despite the brexite uncertainty, the number of investments in Germany remained at the same level as in the previous year. >more


COVID-19 and Change

Credit Suisse

SUPERTRENDS PUSHING FOR CHANGE

Our normal way of life has ground to a halt because of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. This also holds true for the economy, as governments have shut down economies to contain the spread of COVID-19 and help their health systems cope with the sudden surge in critically ill patients. This crisis is challenging existing systems and structures, sowing the seeds for further change ahead as we uncover limitations in how we learn, work, and live. Going forward, citizens, businesses, and governments will need to reconsider the balance between the urban and the rural, between cost-consciousness and investing for the future, and between a remote and centralized workforce. >more


Investor Q1 2020

UBS

INVESTOR SENTIMENT Q1 2020

UBS surveyed 2,928 investors and 1,180 business owners with at least $1M in investable assets (for investors) or at least $1M in annual revenue and at least one employee other than themselves (for business owners), from April 1 – 20, 2020. The global sample was split across 14 markets: Argentina, Brazil, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Singapore, Switzerland, the UAE, the UK and the US. >more


BIS March 2020

Bank for International Settlements

BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: MARCH 2020

This Quarterly Review takes an in-depth look at the fast-changing world of payments. The speed of changes and the potential for disruption have propelled payment systems to the top of policymakers' agendas.  It also discusses the market impact of the coronavirus outbreak. >more


European Markets Q2 2020 Outlook

J.P. Morgan

Q2 2020 GUIDE TO THE MARKETS: EUROPE

Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics for Europe. This includes information about equities, fixed income and other asset classes as well as macroeconomic analyses. >more


COVID-19: German Economy and International Trade

KfW Research

KFW-INTERNATIONALISIERUNGSBERICHT

The coronavirus hits the export-oriented German economy in an already difficult situation. The increasing tensions in international trade relations and a slowing global economy already left their mark on SMEs in 2018: foreign sales at that time rose by only around 3.1 % to EUR 595 billion (2017: 5.5 %).The foreign share of total sales of internationally active companies fell slightly to 28.2 % in 2018. The KfW-ifo export expectations of SMEs in the manufacturing sector were negative throughout 2019, but recently they have dropped sharply again: In March 2020 the indicator fell by a full 17.6 points to a balance of -24.6. >more


Negative Interests for German Households

Deutsche Bank Research

COST OF NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES TO GERMAN HOUSEHOLDS

We identify the impact of negative rates on household portfolios in Germany. Real returns on cash and deposits stood at -1.2% in Q1 2019. Due to that, Germans lost around EUR 150 in real terms in 2019 per person, compared to the 1991-2014 average. The aggregate loss including claims on insurance for a representative household was roughly EUR 540 per year. >more


Transformation Programs

EY

HOW DO YOU FIND CLARITY IN THE MIDST OF A CRISIS?

Despite unprecedented social and economic paralysis, many global companies continue to plan major transformation programs. More than half (56%) of executives globally are opting to transform through transaction and plan an acquisition in the next 12 months, according to our Capital Confidence Barometer survey of more than 2,900 C-suite executives globally. >more


Corona Crisis and Economy

Roland Berger

"SICHERES HOCHFAHREN" IN DER CORONA-KRISE

At present, politics and society in this country are still completely under the spell of the current crisis. The well-being and health of each and every one of us is the highest priority. This is an imperative of human dignity and therefore has no alternative. Nevertheless, the economic consequences of the Corona crisis must also be kept in mind. It would be fatal if, in a few weeks' time, we had averted the worst health hazards, but then our national economy would be on the ground. In dealing with the corona crisis, health and economic considerations must therefore be kept in balance. >more


COVID-19 Research Compilation

J.P. Morgan

CORONAVIRUS (COVID-19) RESEARCH COMPILATION

This compilation includes all of our research to-date on the coronavirus, and will be updated continually as the pandemic continues. The high frequency charts on infection, mortality, and economic and market data will be updated as data becomes available. This compilation incorporates research and feedback from Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, Harvard Medical School, the Imperial College of London Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease at the National Institutes of Health. >more


Coronavirus and Market Impact

UBS

CORONAVIRUS: THE MARKET IMPACT

As the number of reported coronavirus cases outside of China continues to rise, so do broader investor concerns about the potential economic impact of the virus. The prevailing market narrative has shifted swiftly from the coronavirus being a predominantly China issue, to the coronavirus being a global problem that might result in recession. But the repricing of growth expectations and risk across asset classes due to the coronavirus has been far from uniform. >more


Corona and Business Impacts

PwC

RESPONDING TO THE POTENTIAL BUSINESS IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 OUTBREAK

The COVID-19 outbreak has been declared a public health emergency of international concern by the World Health Organization, causing huge impact on people's lives, families and communities. As the international response continues to develop, we know that organisations are facing several potentially significant challenges to which they need to respond rapidly. >more


Climate Risk and European Insurance

DWS

HOW EUROPEAN INSURANCE REGULATORS ARE RESPONDING TO CLIMATE RISK

According to several industry assessments, insurers are largely failing in their efforts to achieve many of their ambitions. DWS’s analysis of 35 major European listed insurance companies found only 15 companies with an A or B score in our ESG rating (which combines four different data providers) and only four companies with an A or B score in our SDG rating. However, in September 2019 a number of major European insurance companies became founding members of the Net Zero Asset Owners Alliance which has a strong focus on engagement. This may assist in boosting sustainable energy investments, which still fall short of the UN Secretary General’s 2016 ambitions as do incorporating metrics relating to the SDGs. >more


Economic Outlook 2020

Deutsche Bank Research

2020 OUTLOOK – GAINING SPEED

Read on for our discussion of the economic outlook and the evolution of downside risks. We also outline our views on major central banks, key political developments, and major risks. In addition, we update our cross asset market views. >more


European Markets Q1 2020 Outlook

J.P. Morgan

Q1 2020 GUIDE TO THE MARKETS: EUROPE

Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics for Europe. This includes information about equities, fixed income and other asset classes as well as macroeconomic analyses. >more


BIS December 2019

Bank for International Settlements

BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: DECEMBER 2019

The previous quarter saw financial markets torn between two forces: trade tensions pushed them down; monetary policy easing pushed them up. During the latest one, it was the ebb and flow of trade tensions that dominated. To be sure, further monetary easing continued to support risky assets, and so did signs later in the period that recession concerns might have been overdone. But it was the easing of trade tensions between the United States and China in mid-October that defined a regime shift in markets. >more


Outlook 2020

UBS

2020 OUTLOOK: EXPECTING THE UNEXPECTED

The global economy is slowing while the list of potential market surprises grows. We look at the opportunities this could create for investors in 2020. Our senior asset class experts assess the investment landscape for 2020 and highlight what this means for investors going forward. >more


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