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STUDIES | MACRO


War and European Recovery

European Investment Bank
HOW BAD IS THE UKRAINE WAR FOR THE EUROPEAN RECOVERY?
Before the war, the European economy was experiencing a heady recovery. The one-two punch of higher energy prices and trade disruptions, however, could destabilise EU firms already weakened by the pandemic, according to a new report published by the European Investment Bank. Simulations by the European Investment Bank find that the share of EU firms losing in money could rise, particularly among businesses hit by lower exports to Ukraine, Russia and Belarus and those exposed to higher energy prices. At the same time, rising inflation could push more Europeans under the poverty line. >more


BIS June 2022

Bank for International Settlements
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: JUNE 2022
The BIS Quarterly Review examines developments in international banking and financial markets. Published in March, June, September and December, it comprises a review of market developments over the past quarter, and special features that analyse topical economic and financial issues. The June 2022 Quarterly Review analyses how geography, regulation and taxation set cross-border financial centres apart and propelled their rise. >more


Chinese Investment

Baker McKenzie
TRENDS AND SPOTLIGHTS OF THE CHINESE INVESTMENT LANDSCAPE
Baker McKenzie’s eighth annual analysis of Chinese outbound investment trends, conducted in partnership with Rhodium Group, details Mainland China’s movements in the ever-changing global market, driven by investors’ desires for broader market entry, strategic synergy, access to resources and new energy, and expansion of technology and product portfolios. >more


Energy Costs

KfW Research
ENERGIEKOSTEN IM MITTELSTAND STEIGEN: UNTERNEHMEN GEBEN PREISERHÖHUNGEN WEITER UND ERGREIFEN MAßNAHMEN ZUR ENERGIEEINSPARUNG
The consequences of the war in Ukraine are already being felt by SMEs: In January-April 2022, energy costs were higher at 54% of companies than in the corresponding period of the previous year. On average, energy costs have risen by 41%. Nevertheless, the majority of companies see themselves in a position to financially shoulder higher energy costs at the current level, even in the longer term. The decisive factor here is that energy costs often account for only a small proportion of total costs. >more


Perspectives 2030

Deloitte
PERSPEKTIVEN 2030: WACHSTUMSCHANCEN FÜR DEUTSCHLAND
Germany as a business location is facing a formative decade: In addition to current crises, macro trends with a long-term impact require the fundamental transformation of the economy and society. In addition to numerous challenges, this transformation holds great potential for prosperity and sustainable growth: Economic output in Germany could increase by an average of 3.4 percent per year by the end of the decade - with a direct impact on per capita income and prosperity in this country. >more


SME Barometer

KfW Research
MITTELSTAND: ZAGHAFTES DURCHATMEN NACH KRIEGSSCHOCK IM VORMONAT
The KfW-ifo SME Barometer indicator family is based on a scale-of-enterprise evaluation of the ifo Business Survey, from which the well-known ifo Business Climate Index is calculated. Around 9,000 companies from the manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services sectors (excluding financial services, insurance and government) are surveyed each month on their economic situation, including around 7,500 SMEs. Enterprises are generally classed as small to medium-sized if they employ a workforce of not more than 500 and record an annual turnover not exceeding EUR 50 million. >more


Global Macro Research

Insight Investment
GLOBAL MACRO RESEARCH: CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCIES
Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) represent a new and safer form of digital payment, which are being investigated and developed by central banks around the world. From the various implications of CBDCs for economies and markets, we believe the most significant is the ability to target fiscal policy in unprecedented ways. In the race for implementation, China and Sweden are currently ahead of the pack with the US moving only slowly. Over the long term, this could lead to pressure on the US dollar as it loses market share as the predominant reserve currency. >more


Global Economic Outlook

KPMG
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
As last year drew to a close, KPMG’s H2’2021 Global Economic Outlook was published. At the time, I described the previous twelve months as turbulent and uncertain with a constant wave of challenges and threats. Today, we find ourselves in an arguably even more unsettling period. As COVID-19 restrictions gradually eased throughout the world, there was a glimmer of hope that economies could slowly rebuild and return to a period of sustainable long-term growth. The war in Ukraine dealt a hammer blow to international confidence and economic stability, forcing us all to, once again, identify risks and focus on contingency planning and resilience. >more


European Markets Q2 2022

J.P. Morgan
GUIDE TO THE MARKETS EUROPE: Q2 2022
Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics for Europe. This includes information about equities, fixed income and other asset classes as well as macroeconomic analyses. >more


BIS March 2022

Bank for International Settlements
BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: MARCH 2022
The March 2022 BIS Quarterly Review showcases research that highlights the key issue of the funding sources of financial intermediaries and how this affects the volatility of lending by both banks and non-banks. It also contains a special feature examining possible paths for post-pandemic growth. Non-banks play an important role in syndicated lending to non-financial firms, as authors Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr (BIS) and Haonan Zhou (Princeton) show in their special feature. They find that lending by non-banks is more concentrated, fluctuates more with risk conditions and – being riskier – attracts higher spreads than lending by banks. One aspect of this volatility is that non-banks curtail lending to foreign borrowers more than banks do at times of domestic financial stress, thereby magnifying the transmission of shocks across countries. >more


German Economy 2022

Roland Berger
DIE DEUTSCHE KONJUNKTUR 2022
The expected significant recovery of the German economy last year and in particular a strong final sprint failed to materialize. In spring last year, the German government had forecast growth of 3.5% for 2021. But Germany's gross domestic product increased by only 2.8% in 2021. This means that growth in the German economy fell well short of expectations. >more


Semiconductor

Kearney
EUROPE’S URGENT NEED TO INVEST IN A LEADING-EDGE SEMICONDUCTOR ECOSYSTEM
Today’s chip shortage has put a spotlight on the degree to which the European economy depends on semiconductors. With limited local production capability and capacity, Europe risks its technological sovereignty and needs to correct course to maintain long-term competitiveness. >more


Market Supply

BlackRock
A WORLD SHAPED BY SUPPLY
We are in a new and unusual market regime, underpinned by a new macro landscape where inflation is shaped by supply constraints. Limits on supply have driven the surge in inflation over the past year: a profound change from the decades-long dominance of demand drivers. This fundamentally changes how we should think about the macro environment and the market implications. The key to understanding the muted response of central banks to inflation is not the timeframe but its cause: supply. Much of the 2021 debate overlooked this. >more


China Development

KfW Research
CHINAS LANGFRISTIGE ENTWICKLUNGSZIELE ALS HERAUSFORDERUNG FÜR DIE PRODUKTIVITÄT
China's two longer-term development goals are to achieve high-income country status by 2025 and to double economic output by 2035. Achieving the first goal requires only a growth rate in nominal gross national income per capita of 4% per year on average. The second target, on the other hand, is more ambitious. This is because the contribution of capital to growth will continue to decline, partly because the ongoing restructuring of the growth model implies that investment will lose importance in favor of consumption. This development must be offset by general productivity gains and human capital formation. >more


Inflation Rate

Roland Berger
WHAT IF - THE CURRENT INFLATION RATES ARE NOT A TRANSITORY PHENOMENON?
The adjective "transitory" has every chance of being chosen as one of the words of 2021. At least among central bankers and analysts. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently revised his view that the current inflation rate of 6.8% in the US is a "transitory" phenomenon, fueling speculation about an imminent tightening of monetary policy by the Fed, the ECB has so far stuck to its assessment that the current inflation rate is a transitory phenomenon. >more


Municipal Finances

KfW Research
FINANZIERUNG ÖFFENTLICHER INVESTITIONEN: KREDITE ALLEIN HELFEN DEN KOMMUNEN NICHT
The economic consequences of the Corona pandemic and the enormous investment requirements for the major social transformations such as climate protection, digitization and demographic change are creating new challenges for municipalities. The question of financing is one of the most urgent open issues. It will not be possible to pay for the investments from current budgets alone, which is why municipal loans in particular will play an important role. However, there are limits to the indebtedness of cities, municipalities and counties. Without a structural improvement in municipal finances, Germany will therefore not be able to cope with the upcoming investments in the future. >more


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