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STUDIES | PERFORMANCE


DAX Owners

S&P Global | DIRK - DEUTSCHER INVESTOR RELATIONS VERBAND
WHO OWNS THE GERMAN DAX?
S&P Global Market Intelligence and DIRK - Deutscher Investor Relations Verband e.V. once again analyzed the changes in the shareholder structure of the 40 listed DAX companies over the course of 12 months in their annual study. In particular, the institutional free float of the DAX 40 issuers was analyzed. The changes in the composition of the DAX, in particular the departure of Linde and Fresenius Medical Care and the promotion of Commerzbank AG and Rheinmetall AG to the top 40 of the DAX, had a noticeable impact on the study results. Overall, investments by institutional investors fell to 56.8% of the free float in 2023 (-1.4 percentage points [pp] compared to 2022). Value investors further increased their holdings in the DAX (+1.0pp) and now hold 36.3% of the identified free float, whereas investors with a focus on GARP strategies (GARP = growth at a reasonable price) reduced their exposure by 1.0pp and now hold 5.2% of the free float. >more


Global CFO Report

FTI Andersch
CFO STRATEGIEN: 2024 GLOBAL CFO REPORT
In the global financial landscape, 2024 is a landmark year, characterized by a complex mix of innovation and opportunity. Of all top management positions, the role of the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) continues to develop particularly dynamically. Originally responsible for financial management, the role increasingly encompasses strategic management tasks, technological progress and a deep understanding of global economic developments. This Global CFO Report from FTIConsulting highlights the key global trends for CFOs in 2024. With in-depth analyses, expert opinions and forward-looking forecasts, we aim to equip finance executives with the knowledge and foresight they need to navigate the year ahead with confidence in times of promising opportunities and increasing uncertainty. >more


Fintechs and Germany

Bitkom
STANDORT DEUTSCHLAND: FINTECHS ZIEHEN BILANZ
Germany's FinTech ecosystem is growing dynamically and is gaining in importance as a provider of digital financial solutions. The chances of success for German FinTechs are significantly influenced by location satisfaction, the regulatory environment and the practice of financial supervision. Our study shows what the industry thinks of Germany as a start-up location and what potential for improvement has not yet been exploited. We thus offer insights and recommendations for action to strengthen Germany's position as a FinTech hub. >more


AI in Insurance

EY
GENERATIVE AI IN INSURANCE
Recent research from EY-Parthenon teams outline insurers’ baseline priorities and ambitions for GenAI. Specifically, it reveals how industry decision-makers around the world view the opportunities and challenges associated with GenAI, and how they are operationalizing GenAI within their organizations. EY study also clarifies the value in taking a dual-track approach. One that promotes both rapid, bottom-up experimentation to define viable use cases for the near term and the methodical development of an enterprise-wide GenAI vision with the necessary infrastructure, governance and capabilities to execute it over the long term. >more


Family Office Investment Q1 2024

Citi
FAMILY OFFICE INVESTMENT REPORT: FLOWS AND INSIGHTS Q1 2024
Family office clients continue to put their liquid resources to work as had been the case last year. Developed Large Cap Equities remain a focus, while they also showed enthusiasm for Developed Small and Mid Cap Equities. They have proven slightly more ambivalent when it comes to Fixed Income, albeit still seeing value among investment grade segments. We explore these moves and what they may be thinking. >more


German Start-Ups

IAB | ZEW
GRÜNDUNGSPANEL: UNTERNEHMENSGRÜNDUNGSGESCHEHEN AUF NEUEM TIEFSTAND
The number of start-ups in Germany fell by 13% in 2022 compared to the previous year. The manufacturing industry even slumped by 16%. The figures are also worrying in research-intensive sectors such as chemicals, pharmaceuticals and medical technology. This is the result of an evaluation of the IAB/ZEW Start-up Panel by researchers at ZEW Mannheim based on a representative survey of around 5,000 young companies. >more


Private Markets HY2 2024

UBS
INSIGHTS INTO PRIVATE MARKETS: H2 2024
Savvy investors can by now, thanks to the capital value correction of the last two years, find attractive risk-adjusted returns as the new cycle begins. They are set to benefit from being an early mover as the recovery gathers pace. But some assets are likely to see further capital depreciation before they become attractive on a risk-adjusted basis. >more


Digital Finance

Bitkom Research
DIGITAL FINANCE – WIE DIGITAL IST DEUTSCHLANDS FINANZWESEN?
Online banking is more widespread in Germany than ever before: for the first time, the majority of senior citizens (54%) are using their bank's online services. In the previous year, the figure was 45 percent. Usage is also high among younger people: 92% of 30 to 49-year-olds and 94% of 16 to 29-year-olds regularly access their online banking services. These are the results of a representative Bitkom survey of 1,004 people in Germany aged 16 and over. >more


Insurance and ETFs

S&P Dow Jones Indices
ETFS IN INSURANCE GENERAL ACCOUNTS – 2024
In 2023, U.S. insurers held USD 34.4 billion in exchange-traded funds (ETFs).  For the second year in a row, we saw large outflows from large insurers.  In 2022, the bear market exacerbated the outflows to decrease AUM by 23%.  In 2023, the market acted against the outflows and AUM only decreased by 6%. One company selling fixed income ETFs accounted for 50% of the outflows.  These outflows accounted for most of the fixed income outflows.  A more diversified set of companies selling equities accounted for the other half of the outflows.  The combined outflows over 2022 and 2023 has altered the profile of ETF holdings by insurers.  In our ninth annual study of ETF usage by U.S. insurance general accounts, we review ETF usage across various types of companies and across different asset classes.  We also analyze how trading patterns have varied over the years. >more


CEO Outlook

EY
CEO OUTLOOK PULSE SURVEY: HOW CEOS JUGGLE TRANSFORMATION PRIORITIES – THE ART OF TAKING BACK CONTROL
There is a clear sense that global CEOs in 2024 are more confident about controlling what they can and managing what they can’t. Resilience has fueled a more positive outlook about their own growth and profitability, and they are more comfortable navigating external challenges outside their own authority. Right now, CEOs are focused on technology, especially artificial intelligence (AI) transformation, as a means to boost productivity and growth. But when they look into the not-too-distant future, their focus shifts to achieving net zero by decarbonizing their business and creating new revenue streams. >more


AI and Transformation

BCG
AI AND THE NEXT WAVE OF TRANSFORMATION
The global asset management industry’s assets rose to nearly $120 trillion in 2023, reverting from a decline the year before. However, asset managers are facing a variety of challenges to their growth. Investors are gravitating to passively managed funds and other products that have lower fees even as asset managers’ costs increase. Their efforts to create new products that would differentiate them from competitors have largely fallen short, with investors sticking mostly to established products with reliable track records. Historically, the industry has been able to weather these pressures thanks to revenue growth that has been largely driven by market appreciation. In the years ahead, however, market appreciation is expected to slow, creating further challenges to the industry. >more


Economic Value of Bundesliga Soccer Clubs

Bain & Company
BAIN-BUNDESLIGA-BENCHMARKING: BAYERN ERNEUT WIRTSCHAFTSMEISTER, FRANKFURT UND STUTTGART HOLEN AUF
The analysis of the most important economic value levers reveals the strengths and weaknesses of the Bundesliga soccer clubs. The more effective the use of their economic resources, the greater their chances of keeping up with international competition in the long term. Bayern Munich also performed particularly well in the 2022/2023 season, followed by Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt. Union Berlin and Freiburg excel in squad value management, Leverkusen sets standards in merchandising and Stuttgart is number one in social media. >more


Construction Financing

Deutsche Bank Research
DEUTSCHLAND-MONITOR BAUFINANZIERUNG Q2/2024
Following the 0.3% decline in German GDP in 2023, we expect a further drop of 0.2% in 2024. The economy is likely to have contracted again in Q1. However, we expect household consumption to rise over the course of the year thanks to decent real wage growth. 5-10 year mortgage rates are likely to be at 3.8% at the end of 2024 and we expect a slump in new construction. Only 212,000 homes are likely to be completed in 2024. Despite the interest rate shock, affordability in 2023 remained better than before the boom. It fell in Q1 2024 due to the first substantial fall in interest rates after the interest rate shock. >more


Europe CFO Survey

Deloitte
2024 CENTRAL EUROPE CFO SURVEY
The CFO Confidence Index, which reflects CFOs’ levels of optimism, has increased in positivity to 17% from a low point of -15% in 2023. This assessment was most influenced by the Business Environment Confidence Index, which, in stark contrast to previous years, was exceptionally high. CFOs are slightly more optimistic about GDP growth than they were a year ago. The average anticipated GDP growth in Central Europe for 2024 is 1.1%, compared to 0.33% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2022. About 60% of the CFOs, up from 50% in 2023, estimate that GDP will grow by 0.5%. >more


German House Prices

Deutsche Bank Research
PREISEINBRUCH ODER DELLE AM DEUTSCHEN WOHNUNGSMARKT? ANALYSE UNTERSCHIEDLICHER PREISINDIZES
German house prices have undoubtedly fallen in 2023. However, it is surprisingly unclear how much. Different price indices paint a different picture. Here we go into some detail to assess the accuracy of the main indices in capturing the recent downturn, both for metropolitan areas and at a national level. Hedonic regressions are used to separate price changes from quality changes. The data basis is of central importance here. Our analysis shows that mortgage data is probably the most reliable way of mapping significant quality changes. >more
 


Bitcoin

FTSE Russell
2024 BITCOIN HALVING
In a year filled with milestones, the much-anticipated bitcoin halving event took place on April 19 2024, marking a historic moment in the world of digital assets. We provide an overview of bitcoin (BTC) halving and answer key questions such as: What is it? Why is it important? What was the impact of previous halvings? How might the recent halving impact the market? institutions? Miners? >more


Family Capital Survey

KKR
LOUD AND CLEAR: THE 2023 FAMILY CAPITAL SURVEY
At a time of record low activity across the global capital markets, many allocators have been sitting on the sidelines of late, particularly regarding private investments. However, this positioning is not what we are hearing from leading CIOs in the KKR family office network. Indeed, many CIOs who participated in this year’s KKR survey of family offices told us that they plan to increase – not decrease – exposure to Alternatives in 2024. Their rationale: They understand the role the illiquidity premium can play in compounding capital in a tax efficient manner to build wealth for future generations. >more


Commodity Trading

Oliver Wyman
COMMODITY TRADING'S COMING-OF-AGE STORY
For the commodity trading industry, 2023 marked a year of rebalancing. Supply chains, commodity prices, market volatility, and economic growth across regions and sectors began to normalize after the disruptions in 2022. As a result, our analysis shows trading gross margin declined from the 2022 record high of $150 billion to around $100 billion in 2023. Although margin declined, 2023 still ranks as the second-highest level of industry profits, after sustained growth since 2018. >more


Long-Term Value Survey

EY
2024 EY EUROPE LONG-TERM VALUE AND CORPORATE GOVERNANCE SURVEY
This fourth annual edition of the EY Europe Long-Term Value and Corporate Governance Survey examines the role of governance in sustainable business model innovation. While our 2023 research program  focused on the most effective models and practices of effective sustainability governance, this year we look at how boards can challenge their companies to embrace sustainability as a true business imperative and utilize policy and technology developments to accelerate progress. >more


German Capital Markets

AFME | zeb
DIE ROLLE DER KAPITALMÄRKTE IN DEUTSCHLAND
The Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME) has published a new study on the role of capital markets in Germany. The study, which was published in collaboration with zeb, highlights the potential of a stronger role for capital markets in the German financial system. The German financial system continues to be characterized by the importance of banks; the significance of the capital markets in Germany therefore lags behind other countries - both for companies and private households. >more


Sustainable Funds

Morgan Stanley
SUSTAINABLE REALITY
Sustainable funds outperformed their traditional peers across all major asset classes and regions in 2023, according to a new “Sustainable Reality” report(opens in a new tab)1 from the Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing. Overall, sustainable funds generated median returns of 12.6%, almost 50% ahead of the 8.6% returns of traditional funds, with outperformance coming mostly in the first half of the year. Investor demand also remained strong with assets under management up 15% from 2022 levels, reaching $3.4 trillion; sustainable funds now account for 7.2% of total global AUM. >more

 


Female Managers

KfW Research
ANTEIL DER CHEFINNEN 2023 RÜCKLÄUFIG. FRAUEN BEI FÜHRUNGSPOSITIONEN IM MITTELSTAND GENERELL UNTERREPRÄSENTIERT
The proportion of women at the helm of SMEs has recently fallen significantly again to 15.8%. In 2023, 602,000 small and medium-sized enterprises were headed by a woman, a drop of around 155,000 companies. The reluctance of women to start a business is still one reason for the low proportion of female bosses. The latest special analysis of the KfW SME Panel also shows the proportion of female managers in all management positions in SMEs for the first time. According to this, around a quarter of all management positions will be held by women in 2023 (26%). Measured against the proportion of women in the workforce as a whole (47%), women are therefore underrepresented in management positions in SMEs. Female-led companies have almost 5 times more female managers than male-led SMEs. More female founders are needed to increase the proportion of women at the top of SMEs. >more


Equity Hedge Fund Portfolio

AQR
IS YOUR EQUITY HEDGE FUND PORTFOLIO RESILIENT ENOUGH FOR UNCERTAIN TIMES?
Major asset classes have historically exhibited significant sensitivity to macroeconomic drivers, such as growth, inflation and volatility. With the outlook for macroeconomic uncertainty still heightened, these sensitivities may continue to have meaningful impacts on portfolio performance. We analyze the historical macroeconomic sensitivity of traditional asset classes and major hedge fund strategies. We show that the average hedge fund is unlikely to provide meaningful diversification during periods of macro uncertainty, which are also typically difficult for traditional assets. However, long/short low-risk strategies have tended to exhibit low macro sensitivity, offering the potential to mitigate the macro sensitivities found elsewhere in investors' portfolios. >more


Alternative Credit

Nuveen
2024 ALTERNATIVE CREDIT INSIGHTS: TAKING CENTER STAGE
Investors were reminded of the growing importance of alternative credit in portfolios during the interest rate run-up — and accompanying market volatility — that began in early 2022. Of note, Nuveen’s 2023 institutional investor survey showed that nearly 50% of investors were revisiting traditional and/ or opportunistic fixed income for yield and over 40% were planning to increase allocations to alternative credit. While equities and bonds staged a recovery in 2023, alternative credit continues to demonstrate its value as an important source of diversification and resilience in investor portfolios. >more


Wealth Outlook 2024

Citi
WEALTH OUTLOOK 2024
While it may not seem like it just now, our analysis suggests that the global economy is healing and poised for further recovery, full of potential opportunities to build profitable and resilient portfolios. This is a good time to be a global investor, maybe even a very good time. In 2023, we have seen moments when investors were absolutely sure that equities were headed lower (September) and when investors were absolutely sure that rates could only go higher.In both cases, investor sentiment proved wrong. Nevertheless, as of the week ending November 15, investor confidence as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors stood at 16% net bullish, hardly a ringing endorsement for the future. >more


Fintech H2 2023

KPMG
PULSE OF FINTECH: H2 2023
2023 was a difficult year for the fintech market globally, with both total fintech investment ($113.7 billion) and the number of fintech deals (4,547) experiencing their weakest results since 2017. A storm of global challenges — from the high interest rate environment and stubbornly high inflation in many jurisdictions, to conflicts in the Ukraine and Middle East — combined with concerns about valuations and the barren exit environment, saw fintech investors becoming increasingly cautious with their investments. >more


Neobrokers 2024

Oliver Wyman
ONLINE-WERTPAPIER-BROKERAGE 2024
The interest of private households in securities remains high: between the end of 2020 and July 2023, more than 5 million securities accounts were added, a growth of more than 20%. The industry now generates annual income of almost EUR 2 billion, with almost 7 million self-directed investors in Germany. Neobrokers and (ETF) savings plans in particular play a significant role in this. At the same time, the market is facing profound change. Although the market continues to grow, inflation and rising interest rates have weakened this growth. In 2023, neobrokers accounted for 40% of transactions, with savings plans accounting for a third of transactions. >more


Disruption Index

Alix Partners
2024 ALIXPARTNERS DISRUPTION INDEX
AlixPartners has worked with clients around the world for more than forty years, helping businesses respond to disruptive challenges when everything is on the line. In our findings from the 5th annual AlixPartners Disruption Index, based on a survey of 3,100 senior executives around the world, we look at the challenges those executives identify, as well as the behaviors of those companies that are thriving in this disrupted world. The results show that companies are beginning to develop the mindset, tools, and resources to address these issues. However, this environment is also transforming how (and how quickly) businesses win and lose. >more


Family Capital Survey 2023

KKR
LOUD AND CLEAR: KKR 2023 FAMILY CAPITAL SURVEY
At a time of record low activity across the global capital markets, many allocators have been sitting on the sidelines of late, particularly regarding private investments. However, this positioning is not what we are hearing from leading CIOs in the KKR family office network. Indeed, many CIOs who participated in this year’s KKR survey of family offices told us that they plan to increase – not decrease – exposure to Alternatives in 2024. Their rationale: They understand the role the illiquidity premium can play in compounding capital in a tax efficient manner to build wealth for future generations. Importantly, this year’s CIOs are most focused on increasing exposure to Private Credit, Infrastructure, and Private Equity. To fund these investments, they intend to reduce Public Equities and Cash. >more


Asset Allocation Q1 2024

Neuberger Berman
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE OUTLOOK: 1Q 2024
Many investors remain overweight cash, but markets have begun to price for a substantial decline in short-term interest rates. The Asset Allocation Committee (“the AAC”) therefore thinks it is time to deploy liquidity, locking in bond yields before they, too, are dragged down, and seeking out value in equities and other markets. As a result, we have heavily downgraded our view on cash. However, while a redeployment of cash and declining rates could sustain current market momentum, rates are priced for a decline because economic growth is expected to slow, and that fragile fundamental backdrop makes us cautious where valuations are full. Instead, we favor the laggards of the past 12 months, which we think could benefit not only from liquidity coming in from the sidelines, but also from our central scenario of gradually declining inflation and slowing but not recessionary U.S. growth. >more


Bureaucracy

KfW Research
DATENSCHUTZ, STEUER- UND ARBEITSRECHT SOWIE LANGE VERWALTUNGSVERFAHREN MIT BLICK AUF BÜROKRATIE AM HÄUFIGSTEN GENANNTE INNOVATIONSHEMMNISSE
Data protection, tax and employment law as well as lengthy administrative procedures are the most frequently cited obstacles to innovation with regard to bureaucracy. However, it is almost impossible to quantify the concrete braking effect. In order to avoid a disproportionate burden on innovation activities due to bureaucracy, it is necessary to examine bureaucratic regulations to determine whether the intended protective effects are in reasonable proportion to the innovation-inhibiting effect. Reducing bureaucracy is therefore a small-scale process that requires expert knowledge and patience. One way of preventing the emergence of new bureaucratic burdens is to implement a consistent innovation review of new legal regulations. The digitalization of administrative processes and the interface with companies is another way to reduce the burden of bureaucracy on companies. >more


Gender Pay Gap

DIW Berlin
GENDER PAY GAP IN EINEM BETRIEB SINKT MIT MEHR FRAUEN IN FÜHRUNGSPOSITIONEN
Women are underrepresented in senior management positions in the private sector in Germany and worldwide. As the DIW Berlin Women Managers Barometer 2024 shows, progress has been made in recent years in terms of the proportion of women on the boards of large private companies in Germany. Almost a fifth of the board members of the 200 companies with the highest turnover are now women. If we look not only at the largest companies, but also at a representative cross-section of all companies in Germany, the proportion of women at the top management level was recently even slightly higher at more than a quarter, as a representative survey of companies in Germany by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) shows. Despite the progress made in recent years, gender parity remains a long way off both on the boards of directors and at the top management level in German companies. >more


Global CEO Survey

PwC
27TH ANNUAL GLOBAL CEO SURVEY
CEOs worldwide are more optimistic than in the previous year: 38% of business leaders expect global economic growth to increase. Just one year ago, the figure was only 18%. However, the mood remains gloomy: 45% of CEOs believe that global economic growth will decline this year (previous year: 73%). 16% stated "unchanged". >more


Insurance Outlook 2024

Deloitte
2024 INSURANCE OUTLOOK
Escalating frequency and severity of global risks — from climate change to cybercrime — is intensifying focus on the insurance industry’s capacity and readiness to react as society’s “financial safety nets.” Most insurers are realizing that reacting to risks may not be good enough and are undertaking transformation efforts aimed at preventing losses from happening in the first place. This shift to a more customer-centric business model will likely require advanced technology adoption and modification of company culture to help minimize siloed interactions, enhance collaboration among employees, and increase accessibility of customer data—but skill sets may need to be augmented. >more


German Banks 2023

Bain & Company
DEUTSCHLANDS BANKEN 2023: DER STEINIGE WEG ZURÜCK ZUR PROFITABILITÄT
In the year of the interest rate turnaround, the return on equity rose for the third time in a row - to 3.8 percent. However, hardly any banks are still earning their cost of equity. The sector must continue its transformation and at the same time address new topics such as artificial intelligence at an early stage. >more


Economic and Market Outlook 2024

Vanguard
ECONOMIC AND MARKET OUTLOOK 2024: GLOBAL SUMMARY
Higher interest rates are here to stay. This development ushers in a return to sound money, and the implications for the global economy and financial markets will be profound. For households and businesses, higher interest rates will limit borrowing, increase the cost of capital and encourage saving. For governments, higher rates will force a reassessment of fiscal outlooks sooner rather than later. Vanguard believes that a higher interest rate environment will serve investors well in achieving their long-term financial goals, but the transition may be bumpy. >more


Blockchains

Oliver Wyman
ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME: BLOCKCHAINS' SCALABILITY, INTEROPERABILITY AND PRIVACY JOURNEY
In ancient times, Rome was more than just the capital of an empire, it was also the nexus of connectivity and commerce, linked by a sophisticated network of roads. This is mirrored in the blockchain universe, where both public and private domains reflect these ancient pathways and side gardens, especially in financial services. Though each domain brings unique challenges akin to different terrains, they all converge towards a shared vision: an interoperable and scalable ecosystem. Today, public and private blockchains offer distinct solutions to safeguarding privacy and enabling interoperability, catering to specialized use cases. This paper offers an overview of the evolving blockchain landscape, equipping financial institutions, regulators, and policymakers with insights into the sector’s challenges and the innovative solutions developed over time. >more


Net-Zero Industry

World Economic Forum | Accenture
NET-ZERO INDUSTRY TRACKER 2023
The second edition of the Net-Zero Industry Tracker report provides a detailed analysis of the progress heavy industrial and transport sectors are making worldwide, in their efforts to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. These sectors, which account for more than 40% of global greenhouse gas emissions, need multifaceted solutions that accelerate the speed of technology development, build supporting infrastructure, and raise necessary capital to finance the transformation. A robust and ambitious policy agenda, supported by collaboration across sectors and between countries is critical to align the decarbonization of heavy industrial and transport sectors with the pathways aligned with net-zero emissions by 2050. >more


Investors' Decisions 2024

Lombard Odier
ZEHN ANLAGEÜBERZEUGUNGEN FÜR 2024
Despite recent progress, the path to a soft economic landing remains difficult. Historical data argues against ruling out a recession, but we do not expect a severe downturn in the US this time. After a dramatic 2022, bonds have remained volatile in 2023. The peak in yields and a slowdown in growth would be positive for prime bonds in 2024. This would also support investor risk appetite and equity markets. However, we expect considerable volatility in the first half of 2024. >more


Bank-Fintech

Bain & Company
UNITED WE THRIVE: THE UNTAPPED POWER OF BANK-FINTECH PARTNERSHIPS
When it comes to moving quickly on innovative products or going to market, many banks are stepping up partnerships with fintechs—start-up or scale-up businesses that leverage technology to fulfill functions required to deliver offerings to customers—rather than building a product or capability themselves. The model is particularly salient given recent developments. For one thing, Covid-19 boosted consumers’ demand for digital interactions. Digital acceleration changed everything from the user interface to the type of products a bank can offer to security protocols. These changes were hard to accomplish quickly using only a bank’s internal resources, so banks had to look outside for help. Moreover, volatility caused by the pandemic put a premium on agility and flexibility—which partnerships can address. >more


German Insurance

Bitkom
SO DIGITAL IST DIE DEUTSCHE FINANZ- UND VERSICHERUNGSBRANCHE
How loyal are Germans to their bank and how many are considering switching to an online-only bank? Who does their banking online? Are smartphones and smartwatches replacing cash at the till? How complicated is it to take out insurance online? And how widespread is interest in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin & Co. The new study report "Digital Finance 2023" by the digital association Bitkom provides answers to these and other questions. >more


Targeting Opportunities

Allianz Research
OUTLOOK 2024: TARGETING OPPORTUNITIES
As interest rates begin to level off, a new investment environment is emerging with opportunities that may not have existed in years. Diversifying portfolios – and making bold, conviction-led decisions – could be essential as performance diverges between companies, asset classes and economies. Uncertainty remains high, with the potential for an oil-price shock and the implications of November’s US election adding to the mix. But the good news is investors may be rewarded for taking risk again. >more


Asset Owner 100

Thinking Ahead Institute
THE ASSET OWNER 100 - 2023
The Asset Owner 100 is a Thinking Ahead Institute study which gathers data on the total assets of the top 100 asset owners around the world. Though not included in the ranking, the study also presents the total assets for the top 10 insurers and the top 10 foundations and endowments. The study reveals the world’s 100 largest asset owners are now responsible for US$ 23.4 trillion as of the end of 2022; experiencing a decline of nearly 9% compared to the previous year when this stood at US$25.7 trillion for the largest 100 asset owners at the time. Pension funds only just retain the majority share of AUM among the largest 100, with the combined assets of pension funds making up 52.8%. By contrast, sovereign wealth funds have seen their share rise and now make up 38.9% of total assets among the world’s largest 100 asset owners.  >more


Factor Performance

FTSE Russell
FACTOR PERFORMANCE UNDER DIFFERENT INFLATION REGIMES
We examine factor performance under alternating inflation regimes for different factor index series for the past twenty years (since January 2003). Our analysis indicates Size and Value factors perform better when inflation expectations are rising. In contrast, Momentum, Quality and Low Volatility factors perform better in an environment of falling inflation expectations. The patterns are generally similar for different geographies. We aim to look at the potential link between inflation expectation changes and factor performance, and the medium of transmission, in a future paper. >more


Banking Transition

McKinsey & Company
THE GREAT BANKING TRANSITION
Banks worldwide continue to benefit from rising interest rates. In 2023, the banking sector's average return on equity is expected to be 13% - a further increase compared to 12% in the previous year and significantly higher than the long-term average of 9% since 2010. Due in particular to higher interest margins, the sector's global profit is expected to amount to USD 1.4 trillion in 2023, which represents a doubling since 2017. The institutions generated record earnings totaling USD 6.8 trillion in 2022. >more


European Stock Market

Lazard
EUROPE´S STOCK MARKETS: CHALLENGING MISPERCEPTIONS
In the gap between widespread perception and reality can lie investment opportunity. We believe multiple misperceptions exist around the European stock market, the region’s economies and its companies. Many of these misperceptions or stereotypes are often rooted in an outdated understanding of the European corporate and investment landscape. By hanging on to these outmoded perspectives, investors may be missing out on structural investment opportunities and exposure to Europe’s world-class companies in long-term growth sectors. We set out to challenge these stereotypes below and encourage a more contemporary understanding of Europe’s stock market scene. >more


Global Insurance

BlackRock
2023 GLOBAL INSURANCE REPORT
This year’s report comes in the second post-Covid year marked by stubbornly persistent inflation, materially higher interest rates, and greater market volatility. For insurers, these challenges are coupled with upcoming changes to regulatory and accounting regimes, creating new challenges and opportunities as they adapt to these new market and business conditions. >more


Global Investment

Amundi
GLOBAL INVESTMENT VIEWS - NOVEMBER 2023
Markets have remained range-bound in the past few weeks as they try to judge the direction of monetary policies, economic growth, and the inflation trajectory, regarding which the assessment is further complicated by the Israel-Hamas war. We continue to expect a mild US recession in H1, higher-for-longer rates and tight financial conditions. >more


FinTech Market

Houlihan Lokey
FINTECH MARKET UPDATE
Overall FinTech M&A activity has decreased compared to 2022; however, a meaningful number of deals across the size spectrum are still getting done. Ongoing “flight to quality” with auction processes for resilient assets are still attracting competitive bidder fields, while demand for unprofitable businesses is limited. >more


Asset Allocation Outlook Q4 2023

Neuberger Berman
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE OUTLOOK 4Q 2023
The story of 2023 has been the story of a U.S. recession deferred while the tourniquet of tightening monetary policy has begun to bite elsewhere — Europe in particular. U.S. consumers and corporations entered the year with robust balance sheets that made them surprisingly resilient to higher rates, while a shift from consumer-oriented support to industrial stimulus is preserving the fiscal impetus. Europe’s growth is weakening and the U.S. consumer may be tiring, but ultimately, the more time the economy has to adjust to the slowdown, the milder it is likely to be. >more


Global Wealth 2023

Allianz Research
GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2023: THE NEXT CHAPTER
2022 was an annus horribilis for savers. Asset prices fell across the board in the "everything slump" scenario. The result was a dismal -2.7% decline in private households’ global financial assets, the strongest drop since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008. >more


Asset and Wealth Management

PwC
ASSET AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT REVOLUTION 2023: THE NEW CONTEXT
PwC’s 2023 Global Asset and Wealth Management Survey and 2027 projections reveal how shifting investor expectations will disrupt the status quo. For industry players, the choice is simple—adapt to the new context or fail. >more


European Banks

Deutsche Bank Research
HISTORIC FIRST HALF FOR EUROPEAN BANKS: MORE PROFITABLE THAN EVER
The banking sector in Europe is benefiting from a set of conditions which have allowed for the strongest bottom-line result on record, even surpassing the pre-financial crisis peak of 2007. Rising interest rates have led to a surge in net interest income, asset quality remains sound and provisions therefore contained, and banks maintain tight cost discipline. Capital and liquidity levels continue to be robust, considerable returns to shareholders notwithstanding. European banks have also caught up with their US peers with regard to profitability ratios, for the first time in many years. Further gains in this benign environment may be harder to achieve though. >more


Diversification

Allianz Research
IS DIVERSIFICATION DEAD?
60/40: It's not over until it's over. 2022 flipped the script on the traditional 60/40 portfolio split, with inflation and growth dynamics switching the traditionally negative correlation between equities and bonds into a positive one. But we do not expect this to last: With inflation levels likely to stabilize in the mid-run, inflation expectations remaining anchored by the still strong credibility of central banks and economic shocks expected to remain demand-driven, stock-bond correlations should return to negative territory, promising positive diversification effects. Looking beyond stocks and bonds, private assets also offer a diversification benefit due to the long-term capital commitment – but only if held to maturity. Ultimately, they are also exposed to similar fundamental economic dynamics as their traded counterparts. >more


Global Credit Outlook

BlackRock
GLOBAL CREDIT OUTLOOK: A HIGHER COST OF CAPITAL
After a volatile end to 1Q 2023 – owing to disruptions in the banking system – 2Q 2023 proved to be relatively more benign than what many market participants anticipated. This was evident in economic data that surprised to the upside as well as higher market valuations for risk assets. But the lack of progress on taming inflation in 2Q 2023 sets the stage for an even higher cost of capital environment in 3Q 2023 and beyond, as central banks remain focused on restoring price stability. >more


Pension Funds 2023

Thinking Ahead Institute
THE WORLD’S LARGEST PENSION FUNDS – 2023
Assets Under Management (AUM) of the top 300 pension funds total US$20.6 trillion, having reduced by 12.9% in 2022, down from 8.9% growth the previous year. Volatility and uncertainty in the global economy have been at their highest in a generation. High inflation and higher interest rates disrupted equity and bond markets worldwide piling the pressure on pension funds to adapt their strategies. Operating in this “all change” environment requires strong governance which is crucial for pension funds to maintain long-term stability. >more


CFOs and Performance

EY
HOW CAN BOLD CFOS REFRAME THEIR ROLE TO OPTIMIZE PERFORMANCE?
CFOs driving more innovative change agendas in their finance function can unlock greater value and performance. A minority of finance leaders plan to pursue a bold transformation agenda over the next three years. Supported by a high-performing finance function, CFOs can reconcile the three critical paradoxes that shape success in their role. >more


Private Markets 2023

Allen & Overy
PRIVATE MARKETS 2023 – LET’S CHECK THE PULSE!
Private capital reached a record of almost USD1.2 trillion in 2021. Since the second half of 2022 we’ve seen a slowdown in global fundraising, reflecting a challenging macro-economic environment, with uncertainty and disruption driven by inflation, rising interest rates, higher debt financing costs, volatility of public markets, supply chain disruptions and labour challenges – not to mention geopolitical turmoil. >more


Investment Outlook HY2 2023

Invesco
INVESTMENTAUSBLICK 2. HALBJAHR 2023
To curb the highest inflation in several decades, the central banks of the Western industrialized countries have aggressively tightened their monetary policies. This has dampened price pressures, but also put a notable brake on global growth and led to some financial accidents such as the collapse of several regional banks in the USA. Even in this environment, however, domestic demand remains robust in many markets. This is particularly true of demand for services. >more


Fixed Income Yields

Lazard
FIXED INCOME VIEWPOINTS: HOW HIGH WILL BOND YIELDS GO?
Bond markets delivered a jolt to investors in the waning days of summer: Long-term bond yields soared to their highest levels since the global financial crisis in 2008. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.33% on 17 August, having crept up 45 basis points (bps) since mid-July — and leaving startled investors to wonder, how high will it go? The answer may be important to investors around the world. The 10-year yield is a reference rate for loans in the United States, notably mortgages, and it is used as the “risk-free” rate in many financial valuations. A significant rise in the 10-year yield now could put the brakes on what has so far been a resilient US economy, potentially affecting global growth. >more


Fixed Income Investment Outlook Q3 2023

Neuberger Berman
FIXED INCOME INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 3Q 2023
Central banks are finding it hard to finish the long journey toward inflation normalization, but we believe that policy rates are likely at or near their peaks—and could be maintained at elevated levels for some time. In an environment of slowing growth, restrictive monetary policy and rising idiosyncratic risk, we favor shorter durations, quality and a focus on security selection. >more


Equity Market Outlook Q3 2023

Neuberger Berman
EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK 3Q 2023
Like many, we have been surprised by the strength of U.S. equities in the face of rising interest rates, sticky inflation, a regional banking crisis and persistent geopolitical tension. Megacap growth stocks (MEGAs) dominated during the first half of the year, helped along by excess liquidity (soon set to unwind), fortuitous positioning (as investors, both systematic and discretionary, shifted from being grossly under-positioned in equities to distinctly above average following last year’s lackluster performance), and giddy exuberance over AI (and the productivity gains it promises). >more


Family Office

Citi
FAMILY OFFICE INVESTMENT REPORT Q2 2023
Using data from our family office clients worldwide, this report summarizes recent portfolio positioning and shifts at global and regional levels. It also examines this activity in light of Citi Global Wealth’s short- and long-term asset allocations. >more


Restructuring 2023

Oliver Wyman
RESTRUCTURING REPORT 2023
What are the main challenges companies have faced and how have they fared in recent years? What financing options are still available for companies under pressure, and what are their biggest concerns for the future? These are the questions addressed in this year's restructuring brochure. It is based on a survey of experts across Europe, supplemented by analysis from Oliver Wyman. >more


Asset Class Returns Forecasts

Amundi
ASSET CLASS RETURNS FORECASTS - Q3 2023
Optimism was definitely behind the respectable performance registered by risky assets in the last quarter. However, the economic backdrop does not look overly positive. On the price levels side, US headline inflation is receding, although the core measure - more important for monetary policy decisions - is proving to be stickier. The latest European and UK inflation numbers signal that price growth is cooling. From a strategic standpoint, high-quality fixed income assets, government bonds, and high-grade credit can deliver attractive returns. This quarter we consolidated our expectations over a 10-year horizon because of improved starting valuations. Equity returns are confirmed modest in the long-run, especially compared to historical norms. Expectations on EM Equity and Pacific ex-Japan Equity have improved, whereas Japan Equity is expected to underperform its peers, also considering risk adjusted returns. >more


Benchmarking ESG

UBS
BENCHMARKING ESG: A BRIEF ANALYSIS OF DIFFERENT SUSTAINABILITY INDEXES
When shopping for sugar, we are spoiled for choice. Yet white refined granulated sugar is a commodity, virtually identical across brand names. At first glance, ESG ETFs can seem the same. However, they can differ from each other materially, with significant variations in selection criteria, tracking error and performance. >more


Fintech H1 2023

KPMG
PULSE OF FINTECH H1 23
After reaching a record US$238.9 billion across 7,321 deals in 2021, total global fintech investment across M&A, PE, and VC fell to US$164.1 billion across 6,006 deals in 2022. While results were substantially lower compared to 2021’s peak highs, 2022 was not a poor year as a whole. In fact, it was the third best year for fintech investment ever and the second strongest year for deal volume, according to the Pulse of Fintech H2’22 – a bi-annual report published by KPMG highlighting global fintech investment trends. >more


Asset Management 2023

Invesco
GLOBAL SOVEREIGN ASSET MANAGEMENT STUDY 2023
Initiated in 2013, this study has expanded in scope over time. This year, it captures the viewpoints and opinions of 142 chief investment officers, heads of asset classes, and senior portfolio strategists from 85 sovereign wealth funds and 57 central banks. Collectively, these institutions manage approximately US$21 trillion in assets (as of March 2023). >more


Blackrock Midyear 2023 Outlook

BlackRock
2023 MIDYEAR OUTLOOK: NEW REGIME, NEW OPPORTUNITIES
The new, more volatile economic regime provides different yet abundant investment opportunities. Persistent supply constraints are compelling major central banks to hold policy rates high. We find opportunities by getting granular within asset classes and harnessing mega forces. >more


Global Fintech 2023

BCG
GLOBAL FINTECH 2023: REIMAGINING THE FUTURE OF FINANCE
In just two short decades, fintech — an amalgam of “finance” and “technology” — has exploded onto the scene, revolutionizing the financial services industry as we know it. This dynamic sector has been fueled by the various innovations that have shaped a generation, each one seemingly more game-changing than the last. >more


Asset Allocation June 2023

FTSE Russell
ASSET ALLOCATION INSIGHTS - JUNE 2023
Disinflation, stable 7-10 year sovereign yields, stronger-than-expected economic growth and AI euphoria lead to risk-on rally, but downside risk remains. >more


Outlook Q3 2023

PGIM
2023 Q3 OUTLOOK
The global growth outlook for the balance of 2023 appears tenuous with a strong labor market and recent economic growth supporting the view that the US could avoid recession. Meanwhile, Europe must contend with rising interest costs, which are already weighing on Eurozone consumers, while weaker demand from China is a negative for manufacturing. >more


Cross Asset Investment

Amundi
CROSS ASSET INVESTMENT STRATEGY – SPECIAL EDITION: MID-YEAR OUTLOOK 2023
The lagging effects of tightening in the real economy will lead to a further deceleration in growth with divergences: a mild US recession, anaemic growth in Europe and more resilience in emerging markets. Inflation is trending lower, but the speed of adjustment is slow as core inflation remains sticky and stubborn. Evidence from past episodes of high US inflation suggests it will take about two years to bring core inflation down by half from its peak level. We believe that Fed and ECB rates are close to their cyclical peak and do not expect any cuts for the remainder of 2023, as inflation remains above central banks’ targets and the slowdown is pushed back towards year-end. >more


Climate Governance

FTI Andersch
CLIMATE GOVERNANCE - WIE GUT IST DER DEUTSCHE MITTELSTAND AUF DIE KLIMATRANSFORMATION VORBEREITET?
Changing stakeholder requirements and increasing political pressure are forcing companies to embed topics such as environmental, social and governance (ESG) and climate compliance more firmly internally and to adapt processes. For this reason, FTI-Andersch, in cooperation with Prof. Dr. Patrick Velte (Chair of Business Administration, esp. Accounting, Auditing and Corporate Governance at the Leuphana University of Lüneburg), developed a structured questionnaire on the topic of "Climate-related Corporate Governance" and, together with the forsa Institute Berlin, surveyed 152 German companies (250 to 5,000 employees and annual sales of € 40 to 1,000 million) on the status quo. >more


Markets June 2023

Rothschild
MÄRKTE & TRENDS - JUNI 2023
Tensions with China eased somewhat after the G7 summit: a joint communication emphasized "de-risking" rather than "decoupling," and Biden also made more positive comments about the countries' relationship. The concentrated equity market rally continued: the performance of the five largest U.S. technology stocks, which account for nearly 22% of the S&P 500 index, were responsible for almost all of the year-to-date performance of around 10%. >more


Asset Allocation 2Q 2023

Neuberger Berman
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE OUTLOOK 2Q 2023
Despite equities holding up well so far in 2023, the Asset Allocation Committee remains cautious, anticipating volatility as we approach peaks in rates and inflation and troughs in economic growth and earnings. As recent events appear to have accelerated the end of the rate-hiking cycle, however, we also believe it is an ideal time to start planning a journey back to a more neutral stance on risky assets in public markets. We think investors can afford to be patient, as cash and high-quality, shorter-duration fixed income assets offer both returns and optionality. >more


Private Performing Credit Index

Houlihan Lokey
PRIVATE PERFORMING CREDIT INDEX
We have been producing the Private Performing Credit Index (PPCI) for several quarters using a dataset of instruments we have valued since Q3 2017. Clients have asked us for a variety of data insights, and the question of whether different size loans persistently yield more has been common. To answer this, we turned to the same dataset we use to compute the quarterly index, but created quartile subindices for comparison purposes. >more


Global Asset Management 2023

BCG
THE TIDE HAS TURNED: GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT 2023
The asset management industry has reached a turning point that will require rethinking the business model that has served it so well in the past. Market performance has been responsible for 90% of the industry’s revenue growth for nearly two decades. In 2022, however, rapidly rising interest rates caused both stock and bond values to plummet. The result was the second-largest single-year decrease in global assets under management (AuM) since 2005. Global AuM fell by $10 trillion, or 10%, to $98 trillion—near 2020 levels. The net flow rate of assets also fell below 3% for the first time since 2018, reaching 1.6% of total AuM at the beginning of 2022, or $1.7 trillion. >more


Real Estate

PGIM Real Estate
2023 GLOBAL OUTLOOK: FINDING VALUE AFTER THE GREAT RESET
Real estate repricing is occurring at different speeds around the world and will be different across both regions and sectors. In our report, we identify the distinct and highly varied structural and cyclical investment opportunities that exist within each region around the world. >more


Global Insurance 2023

Allianz
GLOBAL INSURANCE REPORT 2023: ANCHOR IN TURBULENT TIMES
According to the Allianz Global Insurance Report 2023, total global insurance premium income amounted to almost EUR5.6trn in 2022. Life remains the largest segment (EUR2.6trn), ahead of p&c (EUR1.8trn) and health (EUR1.1trn). In 2022, the premium pool grew by EUR259bn or +4.9% – against the backdrop of a global inflation rate of 8.6%. The three segments, however, fared very differently: while p&c clocked robust growth of +8.7%, health expanded by more modest +4.9%, and life insurance market growth was a dismal +2.4%: squeezed real households’ incomes took the toll on private savings. >more


Global TOP 100

PwC
GLOBAL TOP 100 COMPANIES BY MARKET CAPITALIZATION
The Top 100 Companies market capitalisation decreased by 11% compared to 31 March 2022, the first significant decrease since 2009. This was despite a market rebound in Q1-23, reflecting the challenging backdrop for equities from the ongoing tightening of fiscal policy and stubborn inflation, compounded by the uncertainty in the US and European banking sector. >more


Investor Perspectives Q1 2023

BCG
INVESTOR PERSPECTIVES SERIES: Q1 2023
The BCG Investor Perspectives Series is intended to bring the voice of the investor to business leaders and board members. While we feature the most recent research here, you can explore earlier editions below. Our most recent survey was conducted February 13–22, 2023. It finds that while investors are less bearish than they were in Q4 2022, they remain concerned about elevated inflation and a potential recession, and their focus on the short term has increased. A clear majority of investors—63%—want companies to prioritize protecting their top line, and 71% expect companies to deliver on guidance and consensus, while 75% support exiting or divesting lines of business to strengthen the company. However, optimism for the next three years is at a series high—73% of investors are bullish, compared with the series average of 61%. >more


Familiy Office Investment

Goldman Sachs
FAMILY OFFICE INVESTMENT INSIGHTS REPORT
The macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop has evolved dramatically over the last year. While capital markets have been challenged, family offices have remained calm and kept a steady hand on the wheel. In our second Goldman Sachs Family Office Investment Insights report, Eyes on the Horizon, we explore how institutional family offices are allocating capital, leveraging the viewpoints of 165+ distinct family office decision makers globally. >more


Credit and Risk Premia

BlackRock
CREDIT OUTLOOK: A REBUILD OF RISK PREMIA
1Q2023 was a quarter defined by three distinct phases: 1) a sharp risk rally in January, 2) reignited concerns around elevated inflation in February, and 3) a focus on risks in the banking system in March. For 2Q2023, we expect the backdrop for investing will remain volatile, as central banks navigate a challenging growth/inflation/policy mix, now with an overhang of financial stability concerns. We expect an exacerbation of the pattern of tighter credit standards (which has already been in place for the past few quarters in the U.S. and Europe). >more


Emerging Markets

Amundi
EMERGING MARKETS CHARTS AND VIEWS - SPRINGTIME FOR EMERGING MARKETS
While 2022 was a challenging year for Emerging Markets, amid the Fed’s aggressive response to high inflation, we are more constructive for 2023. The reopening in China is becoming a major catalyst for EM in 2023. The second supportive point is linked to the first as China’s earlier-than-expected reopening and a downturn in US economy should contribute to a widening EM-DM growth differential playing in favour of the former. After significant monetary policy tightening in many EM countries over the past two years, they are in an advanced state compared to DM. The tightening in EM may be behind us in the vast majority of cases, but the EM landscape is very diverse. >more


Fintech 2023

Clifford Chance
FINTECH IN 2023: FIVE TRENDS TO WATCH
Last year was a tough one for fintech with the collapse of a number of high-profile industry players, as well as wider economic pressures including the war in Ukraine, supply chain challenges and high inflation. Following the bold predictions we made last year, we highlight five key trends for fintech in 2023. >more


Markets Q1 2023

J.P. Morgan
GUIDE TO THE MARKETS: Q1 2023
We are pleased to publish the Guide to the Markets - Europe for the first quarter of 2023. The Guide illustrates a comprehensive set of market and economic data, trends and statistics through quick-to-follow charts and graphs that you can share with your clients. The fully updated Guide begins with an overview of the global economy, then compiles key economic indicators for each major region and highlights a current regional theme for the quarter in a focus chart. >more


Commercial Insurance Brokers

Strategy&
DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS IN THE GERMAN MARKET FOR COMMERCIAL INSURANCE BROKERS
Germany’s commercial insurance brokerage market is at the beginning of a consolidation phase similar to those that started in the US and UK around 20 years ago. Acquisitions of brokerage firms by rivals and the arrival of new consolidators, many backed by private equity, are becoming a regular occurrence. The three current “consolidation leaders” – Ecclesia, Gossler, Gobert & Wolters (acquired by HG Capital in 2021) and MRH Trowe (acquired by AnaCap in 2021) – are increasing their M&A activities. >more


C-Suite Barometer 2023

Mazars
BOLD LEADERSHIP FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE: C-SUITE BAROMETER: OUTLOOK 2023
The Mazars C-suite barometer is based on responses from more than 800 C-suite executives from 27 countries around the world. Conducted in late 2022, our research uncovered a sense of fighting spirit and boldness from leaders. Whilst recognising the significant challenges of 2022 - including ongoing inflation and economic instability, high energy prices, a war in Europe and geopolitical tensions in other parts of the world  as well as the lingering effects of the pandemic - respondents are optimistic about the future. >more


ETFS Outlook 2023

State Street
ETFS OUTLOOK FOR 2023: CONTINUED INNOVATION AND GROWTH
Innovation has been a recurring theme of ETFs since the birth of SPDR launched the ETF market 30 years ago. Today, ETFs are in the midst of their third distinct iteration, a phase we call “ETF 3.0", which started in 2008 with the approval of the first active ETF, and continues today. This is the next leg of innovation and growth in the marketplace. In this report, we look back at 2022 to highlight important developments. We also discuss the key trends we expect in 2023. >more


Nachfolge Monitoring 2022

KfW Research
NACHFOLGE-MONITORING MITTELSTAND 2022: KNAPPHEIT AN NACHFOLGEKANDIDATEN NIMMT ZU, MISSERFOLGE DÜRFTEN HÄUFIGER WERDEN
The new SME Succession Monitoring shows that every year around 100,000 owners of SMEs seek succession. The relevance of the topic of corporate succession has thus lost none of its topicality. Around two thirds of short-term succession plans up to the end of 2023 are already in place. However, one in four short-term succession wishes will not be fulfilled due to a lack of sufficient planning. >more


Banking 2023

Bain & Company
CUSTOMER BEHAVIOR AND LOYALTY IN BANKING: GLOBAL EDITION 2023
Bain’s latest global consumer survey finds widespread unbundling of banking services in all countries and among all age groups. It’s most pronounced in developing markets, where lower-income consumers had long been underserved by banks and now find access through neobanks and other online companies. Payments offerings, which have become an important means of engaging consumers, illustrate the extent of this fragmentation. Our survey shows the rise of e-wallets and payment fintechs, which could make banks less relevant in consumers’ daily lives and deprive banks of transaction data that accompanies payments. >more


Insurance 2023

Deloitte
2023 INSURANCE OUTLOOK
In recent years, most insurance companies have proven to be extremely flexible and resilient in the face of current global challenges. Internal systems and competencies have been improved. The implementation of agile working and technology strategies has also proven its worth. But how prepared is the insurance industry to face all the new challenges by 2023 (and beyond)? >more


2023 Global Institutional Investor Survey

Nuveen
2023 GLOBAL INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR SURVEY
Institutional asset owners are reframing the future and preparing their portfolios for a market regime that differs dramatically from recent decades. These efforts are being driven by monumental shifts in monetary policy, rising geopolitical uncertainty, energy transition and many other forces disrupting the investment landscape. Our third-annual research survey of 800 global institutional investors uncovers new insights into how investors expect to achieve their investment objectives. >more


European Banking Sector

Amundi
EUROPEAN BANKING SECTOR SET TO WITHSTAND CREDIT SUISSE FRAGILITY
The failure of SVB and other regional banks in the US, which led to the turbulence now affecting Credit Suisse, can largely be attributed to the sharp increase in rates and the inversion of the yield curve. When the yield curve inverts, “carry trades” (buying long-term securities and funding this with short-term securities) fail to work. SVB was exposed to this type of carry trade, and this was one of the catalysts that led to a run on its deposits and, ultimately, its failure. The events at SVB triggered negative investor sentiment within the banking sector at a time of central bank tightening. Within Europe, Credit Suisse already stood out as an institution which had been experiencing deposit outflows for some time and hence was on investors’ radars. >more


Cost of Capital

Morgan Stanley
COST OF CAPITAL: A PRACTICAL GUIDE TO MEASURING OPPORTUNITY COST
This is a practical guide to estimating the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for a company. The cost of capital is a measure of both expected return and the discount rate. For example, investors discount future free cash flows at the WACC to come up with a present value in a discounted cash flow model. Our goal is to find a figure that reflects opportunity cost sensibly, is economically sound, and provides the investor and businessperson with a solution to apply to the problem. We recommend settling on a sensible cost of capital and then allocating the bulk of analytical time and attention to thinking about the potential paths of future cash flows. >more


Trust and Financial Sector

EY
FINANZKOMPASS DEUTSCHLAND
Germans have little confidence in the financial sector: just 25 percent of Germans consider the banking and insurance industry to be rather or very trustworthy. Women are particularly aloof in this regard: Only 23 percent of female respondents and 26 percent of men have a high level of trust in the industry. Thirty-one percent of both men and women say the banking and insurance sector is not at all or not at all trustworthy. >more


Fixed Income

MFS
THE BIG MAC ON FIXED INCOME OPPORTUNITIES: WHAT'S ON THE MENU?
The case for fixed income has become much stronger. In our view, now is the time to get back into it. This is because the global macro environment is turning much more supportive, fixed income is now much better positioned in a multi-asset context and valuations have improved considerably. The next big question then becomes: Where in fixed income do I want to be positioned? The answer mainly depends on the investor’s specific risk appetite, duration target and return objectives. But the good news is that there is something for everyone in global fixed income. >more

 


Global Investment Returns 2023

Credit Suisse
GLOBAL INVESTMENT RETURNS YEARBOOK 2023 SUMMARY EDITION
The Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook is the reference work for historical long-term returns. It is published by the Credit Suisse Research Institute in collaboration with the London Business School and covers all major asset classes in 35 countries. For most of these markets as well as the world index, data is available since 1900, i.e. for the past 123 years. >more


EIB Investment Report 2022/2023

European Investment Bank
EIB INVESTMENT REPORT 2022/2023
Political strife caused by the war in Ukraine, an energy crisis and tightening credit are hitting EU firms just as they were beginning to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis. While the pandemic was a major shock, sizable policy support enabled firms to survive and transform. Relatively easy access to funding also helped them weather the crisis. Pandemic support has since been pulled back, however, and now firms are grappling with high inflation, instability and tighter credit conditions. These combined pressures are souring firms’ outlook. The report provides insight into the state of the European economy and its ability to withstand these crises while also becoming greener and more digital. The analysis is based on the EIB Group’s annual Investment Survey, which surveyed 13 000 firms in the European Union from April until July 2022 on their performance, investment, financing issues and challenges. >more


European Leveraged Loans 2023

M&G Investments
2023 EUROPEAN LEVERAGED LOANS OUTLOOK
For many investors, 2022 represented the end of the more than decade-long bull run of the 2010s. Rampant inflation, hawkish monetary policies, geopolitical tensions, market volatility and spread decompression were the standout themes. The impact for European loans was a dislocation to yields of c.10%, levels not seen since the early 2010s. For long-term investors, we believe this provides an interesting investment opportunity for a senior secured defensive asset class with typically higher risk-adjusted returns than comparable credit risk asset classes. Here we present our observations on the trends and drivers of the European loan market in 2023. >more


Global CEO Survey

PwC
GLOBAL CEO SURVEY
CEOs worldwide are very pessimistic: 73 percent of business leaders expect global economic growth to decline. Just a year ago, this figure was only 15 percent. Only 18 percent of CEOs believe that global economic growth will increase this year (previous year: 77 percent). In Germany, CEOs are even more pessimistic: 82 percent of them expect global economic growth to decline in the coming year (previous year: 19 percent). >more


Financing Real Estate Q1 2023

Deutsche Bank Research
DEUTSCHLAND-MONITOR BAUFINANZIERUNG Q1/2023
Due to improved leading indicators, extensive fiscal packages and the still robust labor market, we now expect a mild recession in Germany in the winter half of 2022/23. After -1% in 2023, we expect GDP to grow by around 1% in 2024. Base effects in energy and commodities are likely to push inflation down a little further, but they could keep second-round effects above the ECB's target of 2%. We expect annual average inflation of around 7% in 2023 and close to 4% in 2024. Residential property prices rose by 4.9% in Q3 2022 compared with Q3 2021. This probably already implies falling prices for the last few months. For year-end 2023, we expect 5-10 year mortgage rates to rise to 3.6%. With interest rates still somewhat higher in the course of the year, the affordability of residential property in Germany is likely to weaken further. >more


Fintech H2 2022 Report

KPMG
PULSE OF FINTECH: H2 2022
2022 was a challenging year for fintech investment globally — with the Americas in particular seeing a $40 billion drop in investment compared to 2021’s high. The decline in deal value doesn’t tell the full story, however. Deal volume was incredibly robust this year: the second highest total next to 2021. Seed deals saw record investment, which bodes well for the long-term fintech pipeline. At a sector level, regtech investment soared to a new high, while geographically, the Asia-Pacific region also hit a new peak — if by a much narrower margin. >more


Fixed Income 2023

UBS
2023 FIXED INCOME DEFAULT STUDY
We forecast defaults in developed markets to increase from last year’s all-time lows, but remain below long-term trends: Euro high yield at 3.4% driven by expected weaker fundamentals and higher rates, but mitigated by the fact that there are relatively limited refinancing needs. These forecasts range in the middle compared to those of a selection of sell-side strategists. US high yield at 3.3%, towards the lower end of forecasts from the same selection of sell-side strategists. >more


Bonds 2023

Amundi
BONDS ARE BACK: CREDIT MARKETS IN FOCUS DURING 2023
2022 was the year of a great repricing in bonds as global central banks took a hawkish turn in their fight against inflation. While the great repricing resulted in extreme bond volatility, we have entered a new phase of adjustment for the yield curve, where bonds are starting to be back in focus. In this ‘bonds are back’ phase, more attractive yield levels, alongside lower rate volatility, drove a return of demand for the asset class in late 2022 and we expect the trend to continue this year. >more


European Outlook January 2023

Lazard
OUTLOOK ON EUROPE: JANUARY 2023
The stock market revival of recent months seems premature, given the full effects of 2022’s aggressive hikes in interest rates have yet to be fully felt. We believe forecasts of a shallow recession in the US and Europe are overly optimistic. However, the headwinds facing European economies and companies are arguably more priced into stock market valuations than in other developed equity markets, while Europe is likely to exit recession first. >more


Wealth Management

Capgemini
WEALTH MANAGEMENT: TOP TRENDS 2023
The wealth industry is undergoing a paradigm shift fueled by changing demographics, generational wealth transfer, and rapidly expanding digitalization. Customers are demanding a wider array of investment options and an improved, seamless service experience; relationship managers are being empowered by access to real-time data, streamlined workflows, and multichannel and digital tools. And forward-looking firms will achieve new growth by mining new customer segments and exploring acquisition and ecosystem partnership opportunities. >more


Women on the Management

DIW Berlin
MANAGERINNEN BAROMETER 2023
The proportion of women on the management and supervisory boards of large companies in Germany rose again last year. In late fall 2022, the 200 companies with the highest sales (top 200) in the country had an average of around 16 percent women on their management boards and around 31 percent women on their supervisory boards. Compared to the previous year, however, the increase was small at just under one and half a percentage point, respectively, and significantly lower on the boards than a year earlier. These are the findings of the Women Managers Barometer published by the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin). >more


Peak Inflation

BlackRock
PEAK INFLATION ARRIVES. NOW WHAT?
Throughout 2022, expectations for peak inflation have been continually disappointed. Now, signs are emerging that we’ve reached peak inflation. As we look ahead, the likelihood of bringing inflation down to the targeted 2% depends on whether policy is sufficiently restrictive. History suggests that this may take longer than markets expect. The level of policy rates required to conquer inflation will have great implications on market returns and the durability of the 60/40 portfolio. >more


Leadership Barometer January 2023

EY
EY MIXED LEADERSHIP-BAROMETER JANUAR 2023
Never before have there been so many women on the executive boards of Germany's top corporations: The proportion of female managers on the executive boards of DAX, MDAX and SDAX companies rose again last year and currently stands at 15.5% - 2.3 percentage points higher than a year ago and even more than twice as high as four years ago (7.9%). These are the results of an analysis of the structure of the management boards of the 160 companies listed in the DAX, MDAX and SDAX, which is carried out twice a year by the audit and consulting firm EY. >more


Crypto Market 2023 Outlook

Coinbase Institutional
2023 CRYPTO MARKET OUTLOOK
The dramatic events of 2022 will shape the crypto landscape for years to come. Yet, despite the uncertainty surrounding the potential fallout, there are important characteristics that distinguish this market from the previous crypto winter. For one, institutional crypto adoption remains firmly entrenched. Many investors take a long-term perspective and recognize the cyclical nature of these markets. Rather than stepping back, they are using this environment to hone their knowledge and build the infrastructure to prepare for the future. >more


Stock-Bond Correlation

PGIM
PORTFOLIO IMPLICATIONS OF A POSITIVE STOCK-BOND CORRELATION WORLD
US stock-bond correlation has been negative for much of the past 20y. However, regime change – related in part to fiscal and monetary policies and the broader macroeconomic landscape – can occur, with implications for portfolio performance and construction. Indeed, US stocks and bonds fell sharply in tandem during the first three quarters of 2022, damaging the performance of balanced public-market portfolios. While simultaneous large declines in stock and bond prices are likely temporary, a positive stock-bond correlation regime may persist. In this paper, we consider the portfolio management challenges of a positive stock-bond correlation world – a world unfamiliar to many CIOs. >more


Bank Business Prospect 2023

Deloitte
DER BANKEN- UND KAPITALMARKTAUSBLICK 2023
As the impact of the challenging macroeconomic environment varies greatly from country to country, the effect on banks will also be very uneven globally. While low or negative economic growth will have a negative impact on banks' business prospects, rising interest rates will have a favorable effect. Large institutions with sufficient capital buffers should have built up enough resilience to withstand a coming economic downturn. >more
 


High Energy Costs

KfW Research
PERMANENTLY HIGH ENERGY COSTS MAY OVERBURDEN MANY SELF-EMPLOYED PEOPLE FINANCIALLY - START-UP PLANS ALSO AFFECTED
The majority of self-employed people are struggling with increased energy costs. However, the energy cost increases are passed on by less than half of the self-employed, and only in part, because they cannot enforce price increases. Energy price inflation is thus pushing many self-employed workers to their breaking point. If energy costs remained permanently high, many self-employed would be financially overburdened. One fifth of the self-employed see the energy crisis as threatening their existence. >more


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