NEWSLETTER of April 10, 2026

The following content has been added at finexpert:

Goldman Sachs
THE HALO EFFECT: HEAVY ASSETS, LOW OBSOLESCENCE IN THE AI ERA
After more than a decade of under‑investment (particularly in Europe), Goldman Sachs Research analysts believe that higher real yields, geopolitical fragmentation, and supply chain rewiring have shifted equity leadership back toward tangible productive assets. They introduce the "HALO" framework—Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence—to identify companies that are less exposed to technological obsolescence. >more

DIW Berlin | ifo Institut | Kiel Institut | IWH | Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung
GEMEINSCHAFTSDIAGNOSE FRÜHJAHR 2026: ENERGIEPREISSCHOCK ÜBERLAGERT FISKALIMPULS – WACHSTUMSKRÄFTE VERSIEGEN
After several years of decline, a recovery began to take hold over the course of last year. While the export-oriented sector struggled to gain traction amid further declines in competitiveness, high geopolitical uncertainty, and ongoing trade policy headwinds, the recovery was driven primarily by the domestic economy. The energy price shock, triggered by the war in Iran, is dampening the recovery but is unlikely to bring it to a complete standstill. This is ensured by the significantly expansionary fiscal policy, which primarily supports companies in the defense industry and civil engineering. In most of the manufacturing sector, however, the situation remains subdued. >more

KfW Research
EIN HARTNÄCKIGER ENERGIEPREISSCHOCK
The energy price shock triggered by the war in the Middle East will be more severe and longer-lasting than we had assumed in our baseline scenario at the start of the war. We are therefore revising our growth forecast for Germany for 2026 down to just 0.9% (0.6% excluding calendar effects), compared to a pre-war forecast of 1.5%. We assume here that the Strait of Hormuz will gradually become passable again in the course of April. A longer blockade would significantly increase the risk of recession. >more

Allianz Research
PIXELS OF CRISIS: A GRANULAR LOOK AT THE RISKS OF NON-PAYMENT DUE TO THE CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST
The Middle East conflict and the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz have led to a broad-based reassessment of non-payment risks, with country downgrades outweighing upgrades. We downgraded the non-payment risk backdrop for five economies (Kuwait, Qatar, Serbia, the UK and the UAE) and upgraded only three (Azerbaijan, Costa Rica and Kazakhstan). Downgrades are due to either first-round effects such as higher input prices and rising supply shortages jeopardizing profitability or simply to growing domestic fragilities such as the UK’s fiscal situation. Triple-deficit economies – energy, current account and fiscal – are set to bear the brunt of second-round effects, notably Ukraine, Jordan, Pakistan, Kenya and Ethiopia, followed by Ghana, Egypt, Sri Lanka, Türkiye and Morocco. >more

THE VOTING PREMIUM
Doron Levit, Nadya Malenko, and Ernst G. Maug
2025
This paper develops a unified theory of blockholder governance and the voting premium, in a setting without takeovers or controlling shareholders. A voting premium emerges when a minority blockholder can influence the shareholder composition by accumulating votes and buying shares from dissenting shareholders. Our theory reconciles conflicting empirical findings by showing that standard measures of the voting premium often misrepresent the true value of voting rights, that increased conflicts between the blockholder and small shareholders do not necessarily raise the voting premium, and that the voting premium can even turn negative when small shareholders free-ride on the blockholder's trades. >more

CORPORATE M&AS AND LABOR MARKET CONCENTRATION: EFFICIENCY GAINS OR POWER GRABS?
David C. Cicero, Mo Shen, and Jaideep Shenoy
2026
Mergers of firms that share labor markets increase labor market concentration which can lead to labor efficiency gains and/or create labor market power for the merged firms. Using a novel measure based on establishment-level employment data, we find that merger-induced increases in labor market concentration explain value creation in a sample of completed U.S. public firm mergers from 1991 to 2016. Analysis of the stock market reactions of rival, supplier, and customer firms, as well as firm- and establishment-level real effects in the merging firms, supports a labor efficiency explanation of these merger gains. >more