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Global Risks 2019

World Economic Forum

THE GLOBAL RISKS REPORT 2019

The report presents the results of our latest Global Risks Perception Survey, in which nearly 1,000 decision-makers from the public sector, private sector, academia and civil society assess the risks facing the world. Nine out of 10 respondents expect worsening economic and political confrontations between major powers this year. Over a ten-year horizon, extreme weather and climate-change policy failures are seen as the gravest threats. >more


BIS December 2018

 

 

Bank for International Settlements

BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: DECEMBER 2018

Financial markets swung widely, eventually netting a sharp correction, during the period under review, which started in mid-September. Asset prices fell across the board and US government yields widened in October before retracing that increase and dropping further as the selloff of risk assets spread. Volatility and term premia jumped. A further round of turbulence, this time accompanied by lower yields, hit markets in December. >more


Outlook January 2019

The Economist

GLOBAL OUTLOOK JANUARY 2019

The Economist Intelligence Unit has revised its US monetary policy forecast. They have also made a slight revision to the US dollar-euro exchange-rate forecasts in 2019-20 as a result of fewer US rate increases in that period. The slower pace of monetary tightening in the US will also reduce the pressure faced by some emerging markets as a result of tightening global liquidity conditions, as has already been illustrated by the strengthening of many emerging markets' exchange rates against the US dollar over the past month. >more


EIB Report 2018/2019

European Investment Bank

EIB INVESTMENT REPORT 2018/2019: RETOOLING EUROPE’S ECONOMY

The Investment Report, issued annually by the European Investment Bank, provides a comprehensive overview and analysis of investment and the financing of investment in the European Union. The report builds on a unique set of databases and survey data, including the annual EIB Investment Survey of 12500 firms across Europe. It provides critical inputs to policy debates on the need for public action on investment, and on the types of intervention that can have the greatest impact. >more


Global Competitiveness Report 2018

World Economic Forum

THE GLOBAL COMPETITIVENESS REPORT 2018

The 2018 edition of the Global Competitiveness Report represents a milestone in the four-decade history of the series, with the introduction of the new Global Competitiveness Index 4.0. The new index sheds light on an emerging set of drivers of productivity and long-term growth in the era of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. It provides a much-needed compass for policy-makers and other stakeholders to help shape economic strategies and monitor progress. >more


Global Investment Q4 2018

BlackRock

GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Q4 2018

We see the steady global expansion rolling on, underpinned by above-trend U.S. growth. Yet the range of potential economic outcomes is widening. Gradual increases in U.S. rates are tightening financial conditions globally, and have contributed to bouts of volatility and sharply depreciating emerging market (EM) currencies. We also take a deep dive into the prospects for EMs after an unexpectedly drawn-out selloff. >more


Markets Q4 2018

J.P. Morgan

GUIDE TO THE MARKETS - Q4 2018

Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics for Europe. This includes information about equities, fixed income and other asset classes as well as macroeconomic analyses. >more


BIS September 2018

Bank for International Settlements

BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: SEPTEMBER 2018

Divergence is the name of the game. During the review period, while US financial markets powered ahead, emerging markets faced mounting pressure. One could say that, on average, global financial markets continued to do well, extending the previous vintage year. But the average was not particularly meaningful. It was a bit like that proverbial person whose temperature, on average, was fine, except that their head was on fire and their feet freezing. >more


Global Wealth Report 2018

Allianz

GLOBAL WEALTH REPORT 2018

Financial assets  of households rose by a significant 7.7% to EUR 168 trillion in 2017, supported by synchronized economic recovery and strong financial markets according to the ninth edition of the ‘Allianz Global Wealth Report’. However, first data for 2018 suggests a much reduced growth. The report puts the asset and debt situation of households in more than 50 countries under the microscope. >more


Trade War US and China

The Boston Consulting Group

HOW MUCH WILL A TRADE WAR HURT YOUR COMPANY?

The trade dispute between the US and China continues to escalate. Tariffs of 25% have been imposed or announced on $50 billion of imports from China, and tariffs on a further $200 billion are now being reviewed. With some of the world’s largest trading relationships embroiled in an escalating trade conflict, how high might the cost to the global economy and to your firm be? >more


Global Financial System Outlook 2030

World Economic Forum

THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL AND MONETARY SYSTEM IN 2030

The Global Future Council on Financial and Monetary Systems published this report singling out three key aspects of the risks and challenges associated with the two seemingly opposed forces of decentralization and integration, to which the international financial architecture will need to adapt: 1) regulatory challenges; 2) the transformation of the financial system through digitization; and 3) current macroeconomic risks. >more


European Market Trends Q3 2018

J.P. Morgan

GUIDE TO THE MARKETS - Q3 2018

Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics for Europe. This includes information about equities, fixed income and other asset classes as well as macroeconomic analyses. >more


FDI Decisions since 2000

Ernst & Young

GAME CHANGERS: EUROPE ATTRACTIVENESS SURVEY

EY’s Europe Attractiveness Survey has been tracking FDI decisions since 2000. This year it reveals an inflexion four powerful undercurrents of change. We think these are true game changers because sweeping in from different directions, they are remaking the European rulebook on cross-border investment. >more


Demographics and Inflation and Asset Prices

Goldman Sachs

MUCH ADO ABOUT SOMETHING? DEMOGRAPHICS, INFLATION AND ASSET PRICES

Based on the analysis presented in this paper, GS draws two main conclusions: 1) demographics are probably overstated as a driver of inflation and asset prices; 2) over the next decade, demographics are likely to be modestly supportive for US inflation and modestly negative for equities and bonds. >more


Sovereignty

PGIM

THE END OF SOVEREIGNTY? GLOBALIZATION, NATIONALISM AND THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS

The escalating tussle between globalization and nationalism could have profound implications for global financial markets, traditional investment frameworks and developed market geopolitical risk analysis, says a new report from PGIM, Inc., the investment management business of Prudential Financial, Inc. >more


Foreign Direct Investments

A.T. Kearney

INVESTING IN A LOCALIZED WORLD: THE 2018 A.T. KEARNEY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT CONFIDENCE INDEX

In an environment marked by stronger economic growth and elevated political risks, investors’ pursuit of localization raises the importance of FDI for business strategies. >more


IMF April 2018

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: APRIL 2018

The global economic upswing that began around mid-2016 has become broader and stronger. This new World Economic Outlook report projects that advanced economies as a group will continue to expand above their potential growth rates this year and next before decelerating, while growth in emerging market and developing economies will rise before leveling off. For most countries, current favorable growth rates will not last. Policymakers should seize this opportunity to bolster growth, make it more durable, and equip their governments better to counter the next downturn. >more


Oil Price Forecast

Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

2018 OIL PRICE FORECAST: WHO PREDICTS BEST?

Oil prices are set to rise moderately in 2018, according to the annual review of oil price predictions and trends by Roland Berger. In addition, the study examines the accuracy of countries and institutions as forecasters of the oil price in 2017 and aggregate over the last years. >more


Markets Q2 2018

J.P. Morgan

GUIDE TO THE MARKETS - Q2 2018

Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics for Europe. This includes information about equities, fixed income and other asset classes as well as macroeconomic analyses. >more


BIS March 2018

Bank for International Settlements

BIS QUARTERLY REVIEW: MARCH 2018

The current edition of the BIS Quarterly Review finds that volatility returned to markets in February, puncturing a long period of unusual calm and highlighting the tricky task central banks face in normalising accommodative monetary policies. The sharp correction in stock markets was sparked by anxiety about the US inflation outlook and its likely impact on interest rates, and shows how much risk market participants have taken on during the recent period of extraordinarily low volatility. >more


Euro Area 2018

European Central Bank

ECB STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA, MARCH 2018

The economic expansion in the euro area is projected to remain robust, with growth rates staying above potential. Real GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.5% in 2017 to 1.7% in 2020 as some tailwinds slowly fade away. HICP inflation is expected to pick up to 1.7% in 2020, supported by a gradual rise in underlying inflation as capacity constraints become more binding. >more


Investment Markets 2018

J.P. Morgan

DER INVESTMENT-AUSBLICK FÜR 2018

The macroeconomic environment in 2017 provided fertile ground for most investment markets. The recovery has intensified across sectors and geographic regions. Although deflation risks have declined, inflation has not accelerated to levels that would have clouded the picture. Central banks have pledged to maintain their loose monetary policy for the foreseeable future, which has been welcomed by both equity and bond investors. >more


Cryptocurrencies

Deutsche Bank Research

WARUM SOLLTEN WIR KRYPTO-EUROS NUTZEN? DIGITALES BARGELD VON DER NOTENBANK – DIE SICHT DER NUTZER

The rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, coupled with a decline in cash payments, is the backdrop to a new concept: digital cash issued by the central bank. The old scientific debate about why money is being raised revives. But what about the user perspective? Why should we use the crypto-euro? >more


Growth and Investments

KKR

WHAT DOES POPULATION AGING MEAN FOR GROWTH AND INVESTMENTS?

Global populations are aging – on this there is little debate. However, what that means for growth, investment and social cohesion has been less often discussed. In this paper, KKR addresses the economic implications of aging, the levers countries may pull to counteract these challenges and the investment opportunities that arise as a result. >more


Economic Outlook

World Economic Forum

CREATING A SHARED FUTURE IN A FRACTURED WORLD

More than 3,000 leaders from over 100 countries came together to focus on finding ways to reaffirm international cooperation on crucial shared interests, such as the environment, the global economy and international security in the spirit of the theme of the 48th Annual Meeting, Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World. This report summarizes some of the insights from more than 400 sessions in the official programme, as well as outcomes from over 200 working sessions organized by Forum communities. >more


Bank Lending Q4 2017

European Central Bank

THE EURO AREA BANK LENDING SURVEY: Q4 2017

According to the January 2018 bank lending survey (BLS), credit standards for loans to enterprises were unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2017, in line with expectations in the previous survey round. By contrast, credit standards on loans to households for house purchase continued to ease, at a pace which was stronger than expected in the previous survey round. Credit standards on consumer credit and other lending to households were broadly unchanged, despite easing expectations in the previous round. >more


Global Insights

BlackRock

DAVOS BRIEF

In this report, the BlackRock Investment Institute shares a sample of its global insights with respect to the macroeconomic outlook, geopolitics, financial markets and other relevant topics for portfolio managers. >more


Global Risks 2018

World Economic Forum

THE GLOBAL RISKS REPORT 2018

Each year the Global Risks Report works with experts and decision-makers across the world to identify and analyze the most pressing risks that we face. As the pace of change accelerates, and as risk interconnections deepen, this year’s report highlights the growing strain we are placing on many of the global systems we rely on. >more


World Economic 2018

United Nations

WORLD ECONOMIC SITUATION AND PROSPECTS 2018

The world economy has strengthened as lingering fragilities related to the global financial crisis subside. In 2017, global economic growth reached 3 percent — the highest growth rate since 2011 — and growth is expected to remain steady for the coming year. The improved global economic situation provides an opportunity for countries to focus policy towards longer-term issues such as low carbon economic growth, reducing inequalities, economic diversification and eliminating deep-rooted barriers that hinder development. >more


Markets Q1 2018

J.P. Morgan

GUIDE TO THE MARKETS - Q1 2018

Updated each quarter, the Guide to the Markets illustrates a comprehensive array of market and economic trends and statistics for Europe. This includes information about equities, fixed income and other asset classes as well as macroeconomic analyses. >more